Skip to main content

View Diary: AZ-2 Barber now LEADING by almost 600 votes (61 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  That's great news (12+ / 0-)

    any word on the outstanding votes in Cochise?  Yesterday it sounded like they hadn't even started counting those.

    To believe that markets determine value is to believe that milk comes from plastic bottles. Bromley (1985)

    by sneakers563 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:58:51 PM PST

    •  This race includes Cochise county and no (8+ / 0-)

      provisional ballots have been counted, yet. So I am guessing no update from Cochise. I haven't been feeling well, so I haven't made any calls today.

      •  Right - I'm trying to gauge the likelihood that (4+ / 0-)

        Barber's lead will get wiped out by the Cochise votes.

        To believe that markets determine value is to believe that milk comes from plastic bottles. Bromley (1985)

        by sneakers563 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:09:05 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It is possible ... (4+ / 0-)

          While Cochise went for McSally 61% - 39%; I don't think they have number of registered voters to impact Pima counties much higher number of ballots ... But who knows at this point.

          A mind like a book, has to be open to function properly.

          by falconer520 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:22:09 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  What scares me ... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sneakers563, FarWestGirl

            ... Is that no one knows how many provisional ballots Cochise County had/has ...

            Pima County has 81,000 early ballots and provisionals to be counted; Pinal, 27,400; Coconino, 11,000; Navajo, 5,600; Gila, 3,400; and Apache, 2,457.

            The number in Cochise County is unknown but there is a large percentage of outstanding ballots, according to the Arizona secretary of state’s turnout numbers.

            A mind like a book, has to be open to function properly.

            by falconer520 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:30:24 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  all the votes have been counted in Cochise County (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          mithra, manyamile, whataboutbob

          the only remaining votes are in Pima County, where Ron won handily,

          Ron Barber has been re-elected.

          OK. And now we begin the part of the show where we pull out individual words and phrases of the commenter to try to determine the "real" meaning of the comment.... let the games begin.

          by hillbrook green on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:41:05 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  oops, my mistake (4+ / 0-)

          14,000 to be counted in Cochise County as of this am as opposed to 50,000 in Pima County.

          Assuming they break the same way (although early turnout favored dems this year) that would be an additional 8400 for McSally and 6000 for Barber in Cochise County. Same assumptions in Pima County yield 26,600 for Barber and 23,400 for McSally, giving Barber a total of 32,600 extra to his latest lead of 600 for a total of 33,200 extra and McSally would get 31,800 to add to her total.

          Estimate of final outcome:

          Barber wins by 1400 votes.

          I would consider this a minimum figure for Barber. As I said, the early voters gave a considerable lead to Barber in Pima County and these remaining ballots are mostly early ballots.

          OK. And now we begin the part of the show where we pull out individual words and phrases of the commenter to try to determine the "real" meaning of the comment.... let the games begin.

          by hillbrook green on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:53:24 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Thanks - there was a diary last night (0+ / 0-)

            That had Barber gaining only 500 votes per 21,000 in Pima, but I think it's clear now that the 500 vote gain included not just the 21,000 from Pima, but also some number from Cochise.  Unless Cochise is holding back some large number of votes, that would imply that Barber is gaining despite the Cochise votes, which is a good sign.

            To believe that markets determine value is to believe that milk comes from plastic bottles. Bromley (1985)

            by sneakers563 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:57:19 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  out of only 14k in Pima (0+ / 0-)

              The 21k was what they hoped to do. 14K is what they did.

              Michael Weissman UID 197542

              by docmidwest on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 04:14:28 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  his current lead of 586 comes from Pima (0+ / 0-)

              Cochise did not add anymore votes today

              •  Ah, I misread your diary (0+ / 0-)

                I thought the numbers showed he got votes from Cochise.

                So why isn't Cochise counting their votes?  Don't they only have 10 days?  What's going on over there?

                To believe that markets determine value is to believe that milk comes from plastic bottles. Bromley (1985)

                by sneakers563 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 04:46:59 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  don't know, but my thought is that (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  sneakers563

                  they have counted the early and regular and have a modest number of provisionals..since no one is showing a single provisional count yet on the website, maybe there is a state wide reason or a step in the process involving the verification before the provisionals can be logged in..every county is still showing Zero
                  Cochise  has a small population..i think they are on top of their count. i don;t think there are that many provisionals in comparison to Pima.

                  it could be that Cochise had a smaller % turnout.. that is what was so puzzling about Cochise and what personally made me apprehensive.. now i am willing to accept they had a lower turnout...

                  then again that's just my sense of it..so don't take my word for it!! :)

          •  We have the data (4+ / 0-)

            on early votes in Pima. Barber wins them by 7%, and if anything that's edged up in the newly counted ones. Likewise in Cochise Barber lost by only around 12% in EV's, and there's no reason to think that will be worse in those that remain to count.

            We have plenty of things to worry about, but AZ-2 isn't one of them.

            Michael Weissman UID 197542

            by docmidwest on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:58:16 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  there were only 33,356 ballots cast in Cochise (0+ / 0-)

            and as of today all but  893 had been counted.

            I honestly do not know for sure if any provisional ballots are in that 893, but  that sounds much more reasonable to me than 14,000.
            14,000 outstanding provisional ballots in Cochise county just doesn't make any sense to me.

            that would be 41% of the cast ballots .

            •  Yes (0+ / 0-)

              There is no way there could be more than a few hundred PBs in Cochise County at most, if you think about what conditions lead to one being cast (voter moved or polling place moved). In a mostly rural county with little transient population, there is simply no way there could be 4000 cast, let alone 14k. If some how there were, that would definitely point to something being rotten.

              I would be very surprised at this point if Barber hasn't already won it.

        •  i don't think that is going to happen (0+ / 0-)

          not enough remaining uncounted  votes out there in Cochise.

      •  Hope you feel better and thank you for the work. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Lawrence

        A mind like a book, has to be open to function properly.

        by falconer520 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 04:09:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  i do not think Cochise will be adding any (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ThatPoshGirl, Lawrence

        significant ballots..they did not add any today...I have an earlier diary today where i broke down the votes. I don' t think cochise will add enough provisionals to dent a lead of this size.  we just don't have enough people. i think they are pretty much done counting, tho  no provisionals show up in the column, i don't think there are that many. we are a rural county. perhaps we just had a lower voter turnout.
        not having many from Cochise is a good thing.
        I think the remainder will be from Pima..a good thing

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site