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View Diary: AZ-2 Barber now LEADING by almost 600 votes (61 comments)

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  •  Re the Senate (4+ / 0-)

    Looks like we gained just under 3k as about 41k EV were counted. Extrapolating (not necessarily reliably) we might gain about 20k more from remaining EV, leaving a margin of say 57k. The question then is whether that can be made up from the 160k provisionals. Say about 130k of those end up counted. They'd have to break roughly 3/1 our way. That's not by any means out of the question, given what people say about who these votes come from. Still, I'd say the odds favor Flake.

    Carmona absolutely should not have conceded, since that can lose those provisionals who need to bring in proof of residence post-election. I suspect some old-fashioned political operatives simply don't have the dimmest idea of what the numbers mean in modern elections, where these special categories are not minor perturbations on PP votes, and do not generally follow the same patterns. So you get these counterproductive concessions.

    Michael Weissman UID 197542

    by docmidwest on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 03:29:28 PM PST

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