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View Diary: Percent of White vote won by Obama 2012, by state (38 comments)

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  •  I spent a lot of time (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515, Dave in Northridge

    at one point in my career building/programming cross-tabs for survey data.

    Interesting data, btw.

    •  So holp me read this (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      plf515

      The first three columns (call the col A, B, C) = the total vote.

      So looking at Row 1, the white vote is .59 of the total vote.  Of that .59, .1 voted for Obama.  So Obama got .1/.59 = 17% of the white vote in Mississippi.

      Is that correct?

      Mrick

      •  Unfortunately I didn't have those figures (0+ / 0-)

        so the first three columns are population proportions, not voting proportions. As pointed out in another comment, this does mess things up a bit.

        However, the .1 comes from (remainder)(proportion White) = (for MS) .059.59.  Obama got .1 (or 10%) of the White vote in MS.

        •  No need for any new math (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          plf515, isabelle hayes

          The exit polls already show how this turned out. You are close on a lot of them, but not all of them.

          Generally speaking, the deep south, Oklahoma, and Texas skew the overall view of the white vote across the country. I wrote a diary about it yesterday. Take out those states and Obama is very competitive with the white vote across the country.

          I calculated yesterday, that in 2008, without a single minority vote, Obama would've won 222 electoral college votes, and with only modest minority participation in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, Obama would've been elected president.

          There's plenty of white support for Obama, just not in the deep south, Texas and Oklahoma. Most of the other states where Obama does poorly with white voters are very small in population terms.

          The reality is this: southern whites are out of the mainstream, not merely with the whole electorate, but with white people across the country.

          •  Let me correct this statement (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            plf515
            I calculated yesterday, that in 2008, without a single minority vote, Obama would've won 222 electoral college votes, and with only modest minority participation in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, Obama would've been elected president.
            To this:

            I calculated yesterday, that in 2008, without any minority participation, Obama would've won 222 electoral college votes, and with only modest minority participation in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, Obama would've been elected president.

            We don't have exit polls from all of the states, so your math is helpful for states we don't have the data for, but generally, we know where this is.

            •  Actually, NO, There Is NOT Plenty Of White Support (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              plf515

              for Obama - even in non-Southern states.

              According to CNN's Exit Polls, these are the percentages of the White vote Romney won in states Obama won:
              CA (53%); CO (54%); IL(52%) - Obama's Home State!; MN (49%); MI (55%); NJ (56%); NM (56%); NY (49%); OH (57%); PA (57%)

              Again, those are the  percentages of the White vote Romney won in non-Southern states Obama won.

              Romney won White women (56%) and 18 - 29 y.o. Whites (51%), both "improvements" over 2008.

              Now there may be plenty of White support for Obama at Daily Kos, but anywhere else? Not so much...

              I am not now, nor have I ever been, a member of the Republican Party.

              by OnlyWords on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 03:23:03 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

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