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  •  yeah, Nate and the polling averages all had Ohio (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Mi Corazon, Ahianne

    a little safer for Obama than it turned out.... and Colorado ended up going for Obama by a wider margin than people expected.  

    I don't know why, exactly. My guesses would be:

    1. More effective GOP GOTV machine than other battlegrounds. The GOP had a successful presidential GOTV effort in 2004 (not too distant in the past) as well as a lot of state level success in 2010 from which they could build.   There was probably more effective GOP GOTV in Ohio than in any other battleground state.  (My wild guess,  somebody who cares can investigate its correctness.)

    2. The GOP had a long time to target Ohio as well... they probably figured it would be a key to recreating a "Bush 2004" map for Romney. So they invested there heavily and early... Obama didn't have the place to himself. (Okay, somebody should really call me on this if I'm wrong.)

    3.  Ohio has a lot of working class white voters, always Obama's weakest demographic. And then there's the Appalachian coal country: They really don't like Obama there. Just look at the numbers in those SE counties!

    4. Some of the states that looked like they would be closer than Ohio had their polls skewed by missing Spanish language voters  (ie. Colorado, maybe Florida).

    5. random error!

    •  of course, Florida was closer than Ohio.... (0+ / 0-)

      it's just that the polls mostly tilted towards Romney on that one.

      I guess another thing could be that Ohio had a "late break" towards Romney that the polls didn't have time to catch. Maybe that was what the "undecideds flocking to Romney!" stuff was all about.  Oh well, too little too late for Mittens.

    •  Spanish language voters (0+ / 0-)

      aren't a big issue in Ohio. Not a lot of them here.

      Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07.

      by anastasia p on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:21:50 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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