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View Diary: CA-07: Bera now Up 1,779 Over Lungren! (13 comments)

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  •  Historic Vote totals (0+ / 0-)

    Redistricting has shifted the district boundaries.  For comparison, below are total vote totals for previous contests.
    Something between 90,000 and 110,000 are likely still to be counted.
    2012 -- 208,711 (as reported)
    Previous contest total vote:
    2010 -- 264,938
    2008 -- 314,046
    2006 -- 228.169
    2004 -- 287,073
    1986 -- 192,711

    It's difficult to handicap the the partisan makeup of the remaining votes. Alpine is completely counted -- rural or exurban conservative.  Amador and Calavaras  (also ex-urban conservative  have 3423 and 2438 remainng.

    The bulk of the remaining votes must be in Sacramento county and Solano.  However the 7th (ex- 3rd) district is heavily jerrymandered through these counties.  

    The remaining Sacramento and Solano votes are split between vote by mail and provisionals.  I am guessing the provisionals will break democratic and the vote by mail will roughly follow the existing poll.
    County-wide totals
    County -------- Vote Mail -- Provisionals  -- % Pro
    Sacramento -- 162,000  --- 31,000 ---16%
    Solano  ------- 21,019 ---- 14,113 ---  40%

    Remember only a portion of these votes are in the Lundgren district.  

    •  Arrg: Re-Districting deleted Solano and other (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Comment above was based on a stale district map.  The (new) 7th is almost entirely Sacramento county based with no Almador, Calaveras, Alpine or Solano elements.

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