Skip to main content

View Diary: CA-07: Bera now Up 1,779 Over Lungren! (13 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Historic Vote totals (0+ / 0-)

    Redistricting has shifted the district boundaries.  For comparison, below are total vote totals for previous contests.
    Something between 90,000 and 110,000 are likely still to be counted.
    2012 -- 208,711 (as reported)
    Previous contest total vote:
    2010 -- 264,938
    2008 -- 314,046
    2006 -- 228.169
    2004 -- 287,073
    1986 -- 192,711

    It's difficult to handicap the the partisan makeup of the remaining votes. Alpine is completely counted -- rural or exurban conservative.  Amador and Calavaras  (also ex-urban conservative  have 3423 and 2438 remainng.

    The bulk of the remaining votes must be in Sacramento county and Solano.  However the 7th (ex- 3rd) district is heavily jerrymandered through these counties.  

    The remaining Sacramento and Solano votes are split between vote by mail and provisionals.  I am guessing the provisionals will break democratic and the vote by mail will roughly follow the existing poll.
    County-wide totals
    County -------- Vote Mail -- Provisionals  -- % Pro
    Sacramento -- 162,000  --- 31,000 ---16%
    Solano  ------- 21,019 ---- 14,113 ---  40%

    Remember only a portion of these votes are in the Lundgren district.  

    •  Arrg: Re-Districting deleted Solano and other (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody

      Comment above was based on a stale district map.  The (new) 7th is almost entirely Sacramento county based with no Almador, Calaveras, Alpine or Solano elements.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site