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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Weekly Open Thread: What races are you interested in? (513 comments)

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  •  going to write a diary later - cautious optimism (6+ / 0-)

    Summary:

    There are still uncounted Early and provisional ballots in Cochise
    There are still uncounted Early and provisional ballots in Pima

    There are alot more in Pima than Cochise remaining to be counted.

    I did a bunch of research and  arithmetic and now estimate that Barber will win by between 450 and 1500 votes.

    The hard part is that CD-2 only covers part of Pima. It is a guess as to where the remaining early ballots to be counted come from. very different story if they come from Green Valley vs the University area

    The second hard part is "how many provisionals will count?" 90% 80% ? .

    You can bet that if there is any precinct level info on where the remaining early / provis ballots come from, the Barber campaign is closely tracking this.

    For anyone who lives in/near Tucson, I highly recommend calling Barber's tucson office, or the Dem HQ and volunteering.
    Ron Barber for Congress
    520-207-0937
    Headquarters:
    3400 E. Speedway Blvd, Suite 114

    Pima Dems: Phone (520) 326-3716

    They are getting together volunteers at Barber offices over this weekend to call provisional voters to verify that they have provided ID, etc. I volunteered today to work over the weekend...

    "We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics" - F.D.R.

    by biscobosco on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 07:31:09 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

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