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View Diary: From debates to Sandy: Things "everyone knows" aren't always true (245 comments)

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  •  Actually, I think 2012 lot like 2004 (0+ / 0-)

    The electoral college victory for Obama is impressive, but just as only 100,000 votes would have flipped the election for Kerry, a few hundred thousand was all Romney needed in 2012:

    - 75,000 in Florida
    - 110,000 in Ohio
    - 125,000 in Colorado
    - 120,000 in Virginia

    And we're talking President Romney :(

    Now granted, that's a lot of votes to switch in those states. But the Electoral College made it much closer than the final results indicated.

    •  heh (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      annieli, vcmvo2, IM

      all he had to do was not lose 10 of 11 swing states by varying amounts.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 09:05:37 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  In the end it was a lot like 2004, I agree. (0+ / 0-)

      But pre-debate it didn't look like that.  In 2004 Kerry and Bush traded leads a number of times.  Up until the debate, Romney never managed to lead.  It was quite surprising how poorly he was doing.  Based on the metrics it looked a lot like Clinton-Dole up to that point.  But after the debate things changed.  

      I just completely disagree with Greg Dworkin, and I don't believe the numbers conclusively prove the debate didn't matter.  I think a lot of this comes down to subjective interpretation.  

      •  actually (0+ / 0-)

        what the numbers do not do is support the idea that the debates really did matter. You have to bring in other concepts and arguments to make the case, including "what if Obama blew the next 2" or "what if there were only one debate"? All hypotheticals that have little to do with reality.

        It never looked like Clinton Dole (11-13 point leads). That's absurd. It never even looked like Obama McCain.

        That the debate mattered greatly is an idea people can't let go of despite little data to support it.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 03:52:13 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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