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View Diary: From debates to Sandy: Things "everyone knows" aren't always true (245 comments)

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  •  Taking RAND at face value (0+ / 0-)

    - The first debate had little impact - it took place at a time when Romney was naturally rebounding, and added little to the trends

    - The second debate substantially reversed Romney's momentum, even though it was the Vice-President debate

    - Although Romney is thought to have done poorly in the second debate, he made a substantial climb afterwards

    - The third debate hurt Romney somewhat

    - Romney's support increased during Hurricane Sandy in the leadup to the election, even while many Republicans were screaming about Christie's bromance and being knocked off the air

    Most of these conclusions are at odds with conventional wisdom. Unless there's some sophisticated time lag factor at work, I think the better conclusion is that gaffes and debates had a varying effect on Romney's support, but there was a definite ceiling to what he could get from the electorate, probably determined by the President's approval ratings.

    So yeah, debates not as important, but likeability/approval is everything!

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