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View Diary: 2004 on my mind (16 comments)

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  •  interesting (2+ / 0-)
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    maracuja, brn2bwild

    I'm troubled by how fair I think this comparison is.

    I want the Republicans to have made some basic strategic miscalculation in 2012, utterly incommensurable with the Democrats in 2004. But I'm not convinced that they did, at least in presidential politics. (However, they've cost themselves some Senate seats.)

    What scares me is that the Republican Party, objectively, is far removed from reality. It would be great if this defeat were crushing enough to bring the Republicans back. But it probably isn't. That will require bold, sane Republican leadership -- certainly not what we saw on offer in 2008. So far, the penalty for delusion is just not large enough. I mean, I think it's conceivable that Republicans will come back to the light, but it's far from inevitable. And given some of the things happening in the world, that distresses me.

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    by HudsonValleyMark on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 11:50:53 AM PST

    •  I see it more or less the opposite way (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      maracuja, brn2bwild

      Millions of Conservatives and Repubs were deluded this time around, from the Romney campaign on down. And the way I see it, millions of us were deluded in 2004, yours truly included. There was a poignant reminder and an unusual bit of hypocrisy - or selective memory, most likely - in Kos' post-mortem diary on 11/7, when he was making fun of the Pubbies for having taken the size of the crowds at recent campaign rallies as evidence of voter enthusiasm. I remember all too well how the same Markos published diary after diary in the run up to the 2004 election crowing about crowd sizes at Kerry-Edwards rallies and touting them as evidence that the polls were underestimating Democratic enthusiasm. Boy did it hurt when we found out it wasn't so!

      There are some major differences though. Most importantly, there was what David Frum has quite appropriately described as a right-wing entertainment complex, which was goading Conservatives into ignoring any counter-evidence that didn't fit their narrative. There is no question that the Pubbies are now in part paying the emotional price for their irrational, "faith-based" attitude towards reality.

      •  Yeah, amongst my liberal friends.... (0+ / 0-)

        ....we were not at all assuming Kerry would win. At best, we were cautiously optimistic. We knew that Nader wasn't that big of a factor in 2004 and that Gore had managed to overperform in 2000, we thought that  Kerry might have a decent chance. He did all right, but not enough and was forced to rely on just a handful of swing states. It wasn't enough. Obama just expanded the battlefield and managed to win both times.

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