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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Weekly Open Thread: Saturday Edition (521 comments)

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  •  The House doesn't flip during Prez years usually (2+ / 0-)
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    jj32, MichaelNY

    The last time it flipped in a Presidential year seems to be 1948.  Granted it doesn't flip much period compared to the Senate, but the trendline suggests that just looking at gerrymandering won't give you a full picture of the state of play there.  We will probably need D+5 at least to flip it though, but Republicans needed R+7 to do that in 2010 despite gerrymandering most of the districts in 2000.

    Not saying this is a situation that doesn't suck, but it isn't fatal.  The House is winnable, but it will take a lot of effort to do so and, unless Obama proves to be wildly popular in 2 years owing to some very good economic numbers or the like, it probably won't be happening in 2014 either.

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