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View Diary: Updated most accurate pollster list: Angus-Reid #1 (38 comments)

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  •  We don't know the exact %s due to rounding (1+ / 0-)
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    grubber

    PPP's final polling margin was 2%; however we don't if that was 2.49% or 1.50%. Similarly Pew might have been 3.49% or right on the money (in the high 2's or around 3% when all is said and done.

    So, perhaps PPP will enlighten us on these details one of these days.

    In the end, though, frankly, given that we do things through the electoral college, nailing the popular vote is a little like predicting "Miss Congeniality" for a beauty pageant ---nice to know but irrelevant to the main event. In that sphere PPP's polling was pretty much spot on, especially in VA, FL, CO, MN, PA, MI. They were a few points high (towards Obama) in OH; however, final margin of victory may well creep up when all absentee and provisional votes are counted. PPP actually leaned towards Romney by 2-4  points in NH, WI, NV, IA. Not that it matters this year but....they were also close in MO, MT, and AZ,

    Additionally, PPP called every Senate race they polled correctly (I don't think they ever polled IN or ND) and their margins were pretty good in those races as well. The only place they totally missed was MO, where Akin was trounced by double digits. No one got that right.

    All in all, they did a great job. More importantly, at least for me, they proved that, when it comes to polling down the critical homestretch, they played no favorites, pushed no agenda, and simply tried to get it right.

    None of us wants to live in the kind of bubble/cocoon that right wing media outlets are only too happy to provide their consumers. PPP was attacked at times by liberals and conservatives a like (just check their twitter account for comments from people on both sides). They proved their integrity this cycle. Unlike Ras, who can and should ALWAYS be questioned as to their agenda, PPP has established itself beyond reproach.

    •  Absolutely. PPP is a top pollster (0+ / 0-)

      Their state polls were top notch.  Dailykos has definitely found a great polling match (together with SEIU.)   Hope they can keep PPP for the next cycle, they are probably going to be in major demand from here on out, as one of the most accurate pollsters across the board.  

      The national polling is the most talked about in the media during the campaign season.   By far.  That is then followed by polls from the most critical battleground states (i.e. Ohio this year.)   I agree that it shouldn't be as important as polls from the top 5 battleground states, but that is not reality at the moment.  

      I agree about the polling margins.  I included the more detailed RAND margin, as they published them, but haven't found the exact margins for the other polls.  Will change the list as those are published.  

      •  PPP's integrity shines when you read their results (0+ / 0-)

        They don't change their analysis or terms when one candidate or the other is ahead. If you didn't know PPP was a Dem leaning firm and simply read any of their polling summaries you wouldn't be able to detect a hint of partisanship. They're results are also more stable than those of many other firms (Gravis is a good example, jumping all over the place). In their last 4 FL polls neither candidate was up by more than 1 point and, when it counted....their final poll, Obama was up by a fractional point.

        In fact, with PPP you could kind of feel the race shifting---in WI, for example, where Obama was well ahead for most of the cycle (7 in last poll before the 1st debate) and then, immediately afterwards, Romney definitely closed (down to 2 points); but then, Obama began to reassert himself. Obama led by 5 (10.31)  and 3 (11.2) points in the last two polls. This, in fact mirrored the global trend back towards Obama, that appeared mainly after the 3rd debate (and well before Sandy showed up). PPP seems to capture these movements incredibly well.

        •  PPP's special sauce definitely worked (0+ / 0-)

          As robocallers they are not allowed to call cell phones, and many minority households have switched to cell-only.   Rasmussen, another robopollster, suffers dramatically because of  their ability to factor those voters in (as well as their ridiculously outdated assumptions on turnout) whereas PPP has done a remarkable job adjusting for cell phone voters in their polling results.    Kudos, they must have studied a ton of recent research to know exactly how much weight to give that demographic they are not allowed to call.  

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