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View Diary: Updated most accurate pollster list: Angus-Reid #1 (38 comments)

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  •  asdf (0+ / 0-)

    Um.....

    Angus-Reid did NOT poll all 50 states as PPP did.

    If you go simply by national OV, then your entire analysis falls apart, since there are millions of votes outstanding.

    Apples and oranges.

    Sadly, everything Communism said about itself was a lie. Even more sadly,, everything Communism said about Capitalism was the truth.

    by GayIthacan on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 08:23:13 PM PST

    •  The Fordham study compared national pollsters only (0+ / 0-)

      That is the list I reworked.  

      The outstanding votes might change the list.  It is as of today.  If the percentages change, they probably won't change by that much.  If they do, as I said in another post, then things shift around.  For instance, if the margin grows from currently 2.7% to more than 3.5% in Obama's favor, all of a sudden Democracy Corps with their 4% poll moves to the top of the list.   Not sure what you mean with "your entire analysis falls apart."   Seems like a weird comment to me.   This is a snapshot of the here and now, an update.  It might change, or it might not.  Depends on how  the final margin looks like.  

      And, again, a strange comment:  Apples and Oranges?   I never said that the Fordham list compares STATE POLLSTERS.   That must have been apparent to you when you saw Gallup on this list, but no Quinnipiac.    It deals with NATIONAL POLLS ONLY.   The accuracy of NATIONAL POLLS is a major discussion point after every cycle, especially after general elections, more so than the look at state polling.  

      •  asdf (0+ / 0-)

        I agree - but merely looking at the POPULAR VOTE is misleading - since that margin neither elects anyone nore is truly reflective of much of anything. After all, some blowout electoral college totals have been achieved with narrow popular vote margins - and vice versa.

        Check out Nate Silver's post-e;ection rankings and analysis for comparative purposes. You both seem to agree in most instances - but he break out his results into categories (national, local, etc.).

        But you both do good work in your analyses! :D :D

        Sadly, everything Communism said about itself was a lie. Even more sadly,, everything Communism said about Capitalism was the truth.

        by GayIthacan on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 02:39:00 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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