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View Diary: The First Shots Fired in the Coming GOP Civil War? (283 comments)

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  •  An actual split I doubt, (9+ / 0-)

    unless it's the libertarians. They're pretty upset at the social conservatives but they have some in their midst (Rand Paul, for one) so I can't see how that would work.

    I do think there will be threats though. Primary challenges, withholding donations and perhaps boycotting certain races can exert a lot of pressure but there's really no place to turn if someone calls their bluff.

    Btw, which of those factions do the neo-cons fit in?

    "The human eye is a wonderful device. With a little effort, it can fail to see even the most glaring injustice." Richard K. Morgan

    by sceptical observer on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 12:49:53 PM PST

    •  I actually go another way on this (9+ / 0-)

      First, I think neo-cons are establishment business republicans (the moderates, I guess).

      But, I think the most likely splitters are the evangelicals, otherwise known as southern whites.  They have god to worry about, minorities to hate, and they place god over party.

      It strikes me that the libertarians split evenly between the moderate and evangelical conservatives...and that the evangelicals have significant libertarian (small government except for social issues) tendencies.  So the evangelical and evangelical libertarians can effectively merge to make a fairly strong 10% party, if not 20% party.

      That leaves the moderates with a 30-40% party, perhaps a bit more by drawing in some blue dogs.

      "Empty vessels make the loudest sound, they have the least wit and are the greatest blabbers" Plato

      by Empty Vessel on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 12:55:41 PM PST

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    •  The money faction is where war mongers fit in. nt (4+ / 0-)

      "In all chaos there is a cosmos, in all disorder, a secret order." Carl Jung

      by Unduna on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 01:52:05 PM PST

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    •  An actual split would be bad ... (3+ / 0-)

      ... a continuing, seething, simmering feud would be much better.

      The Republican Party would retain a sense of cohesion, but its effectiveness would be severely compromised.

      Not quite what the Founders imagined, but it will do for the decade or two that it will take Rethugs to actually start to think.

      Maturity: Doing what you know is right - even though you were told to do it

      by grapes on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 02:14:40 PM PST

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      •  The founders hated and feared political parties (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        See e.g. Washington's farewell address.

      •  Who are the moderates, exactly? (5+ / 0-)

        If we go with the diarist's three factions, the business wing, the evangelicals, and the libertarians, each wing is extreme in its particular area, though perhaps willing to compromise on other issues it total party unity breaks down. Of course, this trifecta is leaving out the racists (anti-black, anti-immigration), who might not fit any of the other categories, though obviously there's overlap, often significant, between these different factions.

        But what is moderation? I am sure there are plenty of business types who don't care a hang about abortion, and evangelicals who don't care much about keeping taxes low for billionaires. These might be "moderate" in one area, but quite inflexible in other areas.

        What seems to me emerging here is the view of each faction that they can't win elections if they remain in lockstep with the others.

        My guess is that we may not see a fracturing of the party--there's no real room for lasting 3rd parties in the US system. OTOH, we may see less intense party unity, with House and Senate members willing to compromise on specific issues in order to get re-elected in their given districts or states. If so, that would be welcome when it comes to passing legislation, such as immigration, gender rights, or budget reform, for instance.

        This is the way politics used to work in the good old days, the politics of which LBJ, for example, used to be a master. It would be nice to get back to the politics of compromise rather than gridlock.

    •  Which ever won that wins basically. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sceptical observer

      If not us ... who? If not here ... where? If not now ... when?

      by RUNDOWN on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 05:52:10 PM PST

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