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View Diary: The FL GOP's worst fear come true: Cuban-Americans in Miami swung hard to Dems in 2012 (144 comments)

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  •  Thanks!!! (4+ / 0-)

    I definitely do not know everything there is to know about Miami by any stretch of the imagination, so I appreciate your comments.

    Thanks for the link - I didn't hear about the FIU professors.

    I was actually initially hoping to do an ecological inference, which sounds like what they have done, but couldn't easily find the updated Miami precincts. Although from having done those before, I know that the precise answer you get depends a good amount on what exactly you do with the borderline data.

    The Miami-Herald article says that they found a 6 point gain for Obama from 2008. If that is strictly an increase for Obama only (with Romney also suffering a 6 point decline from McCain), and not a net gain, then that is actually pretty consistent with the particular precinct results I happened to look at.

    Their estimate of 59% in Miami-Dade county could be about right. Eyeballing it, it does look to me overall like Romney most likely won Cubans by 10-15 points or so in Miami-Dade. 59% is slightly above/on the high end of that, but not by that much.

    But again, that doesn't mean that the Cuban-American vote statewide was not closer, since apparently Cubans who don't live in Miami are less likely to be right-wing.

    And the exit polls (supposedly) included phone calls to early voters. Otherwise exit polls for every state where there was substantial early voting, like NC and NV, would have been impossible.

    To me, the more important point is not who won, but that it appears to have been relatively close - not a total Romney blowout - and it is very clear that there was substantial movement towards Dems as in comparison to 2008.

    I also agree with you that political change tends to be fairly slow. But there can also be some pretty significant shifts that happen fairly quickly. Just look at e.g. how West Virginia shifted away from Obama from 2008 to 2012.

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