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View Diary: The FL GOP's worst fear come true: Cuban-Americans in Miami swung hard to Dems in 2012 (144 comments)

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  •  Read the first sentence again. (1+ / 0-)
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    MichaelNY
    Every election is important; far too important to do as many Obama voters did here in Virginia and sit out our off cycle 2009 state election (an intentional schedule to depress voting apparently rooted in the integration era).
    On this site there was discussion that Creigh Deeds did not "inspire" people supposedly more politically alert than most. See More On Last Night's Big Lesson and How voter turnout decided the Virginia governor's race for a shade more than just anecdotal stuff. The discussion kicked off after this from ProgressiveSouth:
    And who didn't go vote? I pointed out yesterday that the Virginia youth vote -- a critical piece of the "new majority" key to electing Democrats in Southern states -- tracked almost perfectly with the overall decline: Virginia's under-30 vote dropped by half between 2008 and 2009, while the 60+ vote doubled.

    The same was true for African-American and Latino voters, so critical to Obama's victory in Virginia last year. According to Nate Silver at 538.com, the share of Virginia voters that were voters of color dropped from 30 to 22 percent between 2008 and 2009.

    Without Obama at the top of the ticket, young voters and African-American and Latino voters weren't motivated -- a reality likely exacerbated by Deeds' distancing himself from Obama and progressives. But older and whiter voters -- the ones who didn't support Obama last year, and who don't now -- made a point of getting to the polls.

    As for numbers? Look at the 2005 and 2009 off cycle state numbers:

    2005 Kaine won with 1,025,942 votes.

    2009 Deeds lost with 818,950 votes to McDonnell's 1,163,651 votes.

    Keep looking and in the off year 2006 election Webb's 1,175,606 beat Allen's 1,166,277 even while a one man/one woman marriage amendment won 1,328,537 to 999,687.

    Then we have 2008 and "Virginia turns blue" (until a year later) where Obama beats McCain 1,959,532 to 1,725,005.

    2010 in Virginia saw no statewide races yet it appears 911,116 votes for Democrats for Congress were cast.

    So let's review:
    2005    1025942    Kaine
    2006    1175606    Webb
    2008    1959532    Obama
    2009    818950    Deeds
    2010    911116    Democrats for Congress

    If my quick little spreadsheet is right that puts the total Democratic vote for the Governor that would determine majority status on ever election board in the state and the coattails for every statehouse race for reapportionment for the next decade at 359,279.2 votes under the average of all those years and 1,140,582 under Obama's vote the previous year.

    Nobody sat at home when--forget the nutter Cuccinelli as AG, forget the nut jobs in our part time legislature--reapportionment was at stake?

    Anyone discounting the anecdotal, the statements of intent right here on this site and in various blogs, news articles and such leading up to the election and after and the numbers from official returns might buy the bridge I have for sale.

    Failure to be "motivated," as if this is some HS pep rally crap, when redistricting for a decade is at stake shows how shallow and non-strategic our electorate can be. Fail to show up at a local and guess who may be deciding who gets registered. Failure to show up at a state election, a little off year special one to fill a vacated seat? That is how one Ken Cuccinelli, now of some national fame for fanatical idiocy, got started in Fairfax County when mega churches turned out and nobody else much did.

    The only foes that threaten America are the enemies at home, and those are ignorance, superstition, and incompetence. [Elbert Hubbard]

    by pelagicray on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 08:55:52 PM PST

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    •  Looks like you proved your point with numbers (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pelagicray

      Don't expect the masses to vote strategically, though.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:01:16 PM PST

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      •  Never have expected strategic voting from most. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        That is the pity. That is the failure of "civics" and we as parents and sometimes just as friends and neighbors.

        It is a lesson I learned from good to great civics teachers in the 1950s. I learned it from some fairly ignorant old timers hardened in the depression and war years to some high office holders. It ain't a football game requiring a pep rally. Your livelihood and even life may depend on who votes in your name from town council to Congress.

        Every election counts because even the "dogcatcher" may impact your life in an unpleasant way so you want a "good" one.

        It is as important, even more important sometimes, to cast a vote denying some SOB from entering office as to put someone there. Thus, even if you hate them all, you have a duty to keep the worst sleazeball out.

        and so on.

        Lots of Virginians that "voted for change" apparently did not drag their unenthusiastic corpses out to vote against nutters like Cuccinelli. The couldn't get up the energy to vote for little state representatives that were not going to go lockstep in making sure Republicans could gerrymander every district in the state. The couldn't be "motivated" to preserve the change they'd just voted for the year before.

        As a result of focus on the uninspiring Mr. Deeds and those that can't be bothered we lost some damn good NOVA legislative people that had fought for change long before Obama became famous.

        And, to be honest, that is why I indeed do "disrespect" most voters, even those on "my side" because I really cannot depend on them. I've lived through wars, assassinations, integration battles with the smell of tear gas, impeachments (2) and have seen too much progress take a step back because good people couldn't be bothered. Any "sit outs" in 2009 walking by my cave would have been lucky to not lose a damn leg!

        I may not be around in 2014 but I very much hope "our people" have learned the price paid by not holding the ground they just won so painfully.

        The only foes that threaten America are the enemies at home, and those are ignorance, superstition, and incompetence. [Elbert Hubbard]

        by pelagicray on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:21:54 PM PST

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        •  They haven't (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          pelagicray

          It's just a given that turnout in off years will always be down from presidential voting, for every demographic.

          Your arguments are ones I wholehearted agree with, but people like us are politically active and to greater or lesser degrees activist, not to mention aware. The great masses are just spending most of their time working hard, trying to get work, taking care of their kids (if they have any), and watching shitty reality TV. :-)

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 12:54:51 AM PST

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          •  Yep, an unfortunate reality. As I said here way (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            back, most people give more time and attention to a new suit of clothes than a political candidate. They have time in that busy life to shop and shop for the perfect outfit for little life events but none for supporting someone that will help them or at least not harm them.

            I cannot count the times when I've heard people the day or two before the election suddenly "considering" and using the mailings, door hangings and sound bites to do so. That is precisely why big money can make such a difference. As we just saw, carloads of money don't make much difference if an electorate is aroused and paying attention. Citizens United would be a joke in an alert electorate.

            Having cast my first vote in an era when the Great Depression and WW II were fresh in the minds of fairly young people, I had the choice of JFK or Nixon, I think more of "the masses" paid better attention. That background is probably why the only elections I've "sat out" were ones where I was too far and too remote for the exchange of absentee application and ballot to reach me. I've gotten the ballot a couple of times the in the next month's mail bag after the election (I missed a couple of little local specials for bonds and such simply because I never heard of them.).

            I do think we have a responsibility to try to spread the old word that every election, no matter how seemingly minor is worth paying attention to even if in making a considered judgment that this is one that can be missed. Lots of those people standing in long lines and having to worry about ID should remember that next time there is some little election that will determine who makes the rules at the polls.

            The only foes that threaten America are the enemies at home, and those are ignorance, superstition, and incompetence. [Elbert Hubbard]

            by pelagicray on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 07:39:55 AM PST

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            •  While it's certainly possible voting rates (0+ / 0-)

              for white citizens over 21 have gone down (we know, of course, that most black citizens in the South and many other states were disenfranchised until the 1960s and 70s), I would bet a huge sum of money that there's always been a tremendous dropoff in voting between presidential years and midterm elections, and the only way that will ever change is if we adopt the Australian system, under which not only are there no partisanly- or racially-motivated laws or procedures that deliberately create impediments for voting, but voting is mandatory and failure to vote is punishable by a fine.

              Also, there is not the slightest doubt that money is of crucial importance. It's true, of course, that the campaign that spends the most money doesn't always win. However, it is necessary to spend enough money to get the message out, reply to scurrilous, misleading, and downright lying ads by the other party, and get the vote out. Cases in which candidates for major offices win on a shoestring (e.g., Senators Bill Proxmire and Paul Wellstone) are quite exceptional.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 01:35:34 PM PST

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              •  Agree in part. (0+ / 0-)
                voting is mandatory and failure to vote is punishable by a fine
                I have some experience with a country that has such a system. It also has far more modern methods than ours with satellite linked digital voting systems even in remote areas. Early machines had real flaws in security with almost all the questions about ours regarding software security and such. More secure machines are on the way and they will include biometric ID of voters (this is a country with a national ID card). There is also a holiday for national elections. That has not always meant there is much better politics. In fact it has led to some amusing incidents of popular zoo critters being elected locally (a "none of the above" option). Real vote buying is still a scandal. So, that is not a panacea.

                I would like to see several structural changes for federal office elections in rough order of what I think is importance:

                Required "no excuse" early voting with period, at least a full week, Saturday and Sunday included, and hours set by law with criminal penalties attached for non adherence (no more monkeying about with dates, hours and even places from state and local officials).

                National holiday on what is left of "election day" (since the Constitution sets one) with mandatory "liberal leave" enforced even on private entities (we all know how well those places "honor" veterans and now even Thanksgiving with sales and employees in "blackouts" for leave).

                A "None of the above" option in all elections so that removal of incumbents opposed by really unacceptable alternatives is possible. I'd even be willing to see a hard 50+% line for "none of the above" to win.

                Severe federal criminal penalties to include mandatory minimum prison terms for intentional and/or organized denials of registration or other voter suppression tactics. Do not exempt any official and apply strict liability to election officials such as SoS and local boards. (I would endorse the more moderate voter ID moves in exchange for this real voter fraud prevention)

                There are others, but I think those three would improve participation.

                By the way, Virginia's somewhat odd "year after Presidential" election for top state office was a purposeful effort to do so when only "real Virginians" tended to turn out. If I recall, it was a part of the package to preserve segregation and delay proponents becoming state officials when this was "being imposed" by the federal level. It is a fairly effective voter suppression effort to make sure that an "off year" even greater than mid-term is in place.

                The only foes that threaten America are the enemies at home, and those are ignorance, superstition, and incompetence. [Elbert Hubbard]

                by pelagicray on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 08:09:03 AM PST

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