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View Diary: A Surprisingly Predictable and Nationalized House Election? A preliminary look at 2012 candidates. (21 comments)

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  •  Monday-morning quarterbacking (2+ / 0-)
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    Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

    It's a game I must admit to playing sometimes. ;_)

    This guide is the BEST for playing that game.

    Thanks for this analysis.

    And keeping this positive: I'm very proud of Democrats who ran and won difficult races, and their peers who ran and lost similar races.

    Very proud of Pete Gallego on the Texas Border for running 8 points ahead of your predicted base, and just as proud of Nick Lampson down in Ron Paul country ex-urban H-town, who ran 4 points ahead of your predicted level. In Iowa, Christie Vilsack ran 3 points ahead of what could have been expected, so good her for making that run. Down in the Deep Dixie, Panhandle section of Florida, Al Lawson made a great effort to come 6 points ahead of the base point.

    That 50-State Strategy included running a candidate in every race. That's mostly because it helps to build a stronger party in every district.

    But we should also run in every district because, as we saw in the House with Joe Garcia against David Rivera in Miami, and where Eric Stewart almost won against Scott "get an abortion" DesJarlais in Tennessee, despite all the calculations, you just never know what's gonna happen!

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