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View Diary: A Surprisingly Predictable and Nationalized House Election? A preliminary look at 2012 candidates. (21 comments)

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  •  Given the size of the freshman class (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    an even 100, I believe the effects of 2010 are felt more heavily now than 2002 was felt in 2004. BTW, any idea when the last freshman class that was bigger than 100? Here are the biggest swings since the 1850s:

    2010: 14.6% (64) to Rs
    1882: 15.8% (52) to Ds
    1920: 16.2% (71) to Rs
    1948: 17.2% (75) to Ds
    1938: 17.4% (76) to Rs
    1860: 18.5% (33) to Rs
    1864: 19.9% (38) to Rs
    1890: 24.0% (80) to Ds
    1932: 28.9% (126) to Ds
    1874: 32.3% (95) to Ds
    1894: 33.1% (118) to Rs

    1932 was certainly larger, but 1948 and 1938 seem like good candidates.

    ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

    by GoUBears on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 07:26:29 PM PST

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    •  I thought 1992 had a bigger than 100 class of (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GoUBears, MichaelNY

      freshmen.  Just checked.  110.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 07:55:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I had no idea (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        but seeings as 33 members from 1993/1994 are still around, that isn't that surprising. And only Bartlett, Filner, Hinchey, Holden and Manzullo are leaving. Considering they compose a third of the 100 most senior reps, that's pretty low. Among the 64 more senior reps, 17 are leaving.

        ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

        by GoUBears on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 08:17:55 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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