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View Diary: Texas, secession and Latinos: How we can make this work (345 comments)

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  •  But when? I keep reading that Texas is going to go (21+ / 0-)

    blue in 4 years, or 8 years, or 12 years, but then we never see any sign of Democratic gains in the state.

    •  Many a Tex. Dem. candidate has gone to his (15+ / 0-)

      poitical grave counting on the latino vote to show up....this time.

    •  It will be a spartan flip (10+ / 0-)

      give it time, it will be an all of a sudden. If you look at the election results over the last decade, you see voter numbers increasing and trending towards us.

      --Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day. - Thomas Jefferson--

      by idbecrazyif on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 07:38:27 AM PST

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    •  You aren't looking very hard. (3+ / 0-)

      "I believe more women should carry guns. I believe armed women will make the world a better place. Women need to come to think of themselves not as victims but as dangerous." Anna Pigeon

      by glorificus on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 07:41:12 AM PST

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    •  I have to agree (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      v2aggie2, aeroplane

      I keep reading here about how "Texas is turning purple" but every election, the Democrats seem to lose by a bigger landslide then the one before it.  I guess I got to see progress to believe it.

    •  You mean back to blue. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Tamar, entrelac, Neon Mama, pademocrat

      The Republican takeover occurred with the Romney phenomenon in the 80s.  First Repub governor was Clayton Williams.  We're trying to oust these usurpers, but it didn't help things when Rove teamed up with Cokie McCokespoon.

      "It's not like lightning or earthquakes. We've got a bad thing made by men, and by God that's something we can change." John Steinbeck

      by Snarky McAngus on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 07:45:42 AM PST

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    •  funny, i've always heard "in a generation" (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      "See? I'm not a racist! I have a black friend!"

      by TheHalfrican on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 07:57:50 AM PST

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    •  Consider how rapidly Texas flipped D to R (6+ / 0-)

      ...back in the early 90s, and 1994 in particular.  The reverse could happen with stunning swiftness when and if demographics reach a critical point and Latinos become more aware and motivated to exert their power at the voting booth.  Apparently, that's part of what happened this time around elsewhere in the 2012 Presidential election: political consciousness and motivation are growing against the dwindling angry older white male former majority.

      •  the D to R... (0+ / 0-)

        flip might have happened quickly but that's no different then what happened in every other single southern state. The south was tepid to national Democrats but local Dems were entrenched and seemed conservative enough and at times racist enough to hold on to power.

    •  I look at some data, and Obama got 44% in 2008 (7+ / 0-)

      but only 41% this time, so his support went down.

      2012 - Obama 41%
      2008 - Obama 44%
      2004 - Kerry 38%
      2000 - Gore 38%
      1996 - Clinton 44%
      1992 - Clinton 37%

      I don't see an obvious trend line toward Democratic gains here.

      •  Obama did not campaign in TX (9+ / 0-)

        and in fact, OFA had Texas volunteers working to flip the swing states.

        It was hard and depressing to NOT be working so much in our own backyard but the overall campaign strategy for Obama was to have all hands working the swing states.

        There is a lot of excitement on the ground here for up and coming young (and latino) Democrats, and the energy to work in state is growing.

        That the the slide in TX is only 3% given how much energy was spent shoring up the swing states is rather encouraging.

        Locally, we shipped a tea bagger (Canseco) back home and have a Democrat back in the 23rd Congressional District...a great flip for this cycle! We have a lot to do though...the downballot races were terrible in many cases. But the energy is building and with Julian Castro getting such prominence, the party will hopefully be putting lots more funding into supporting the state Democrats.

        "one useless man is a shame, two is a law firm, and three or more is a congress" -- John Adams

        by blue armadillo on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 09:03:13 AM PST

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      •  well (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        entrelac, ball911

        Obama didn't campaign or spend any money in Texas.

        Look at the demographics of the state:
        - 27% of the state population is under 18 years old,
        - black persons make 12% of the population
        - persons of hispanic or latino origin make 38%

        Census 2000:
        - white - 52.4%
        - latino - 32%

        Census 2010:
        - white - 44.8%
        - latino - 38%

        It's Always Darkest Before the Dawn

        by Friar on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 09:18:52 AM PST

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        •  Well Done (0+ / 0-)

          The numbers cited above are virtually meaningless since there is no campaign in Texas and little effort to turn out Dem voters or to sign up new voters en masse.  When the time comes that a real effort is made in Texas, then we will see where the state actually stands.  Most don't understand the size and cost of going after Texas full force.

    •  It will take another 1994 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bwintx, blackjackal, Lawrence

      The 1994 elections were a disaster for Democrats and really inaugurated the roughly equal standing the two parties have had nationally since then.  While Reagan and G.H.W. Bush had just finished 12 years in the White House, Republicans hadn't made many inroads into the U.S. House or state houses.  Prior to 1994 it had been four decades since Republicans had a majority in the U.S. House(!) and it had also been several decades since Republicans controlled a majority of state governorships and legislatures.  A lot of this had to with a significant portion of the South flipping from nominal Ds to actual Rs that year.  But it also had to do with a change in the electorate.  While they certainly had a seat at the table during Reagan and G.H.W. Bush, 1994 saw an explosion in turnout by white evangelical Protestants as a unified group supporting the Republican Party; somewhere between 27% and 33% of the voters that year were WEPs---a significant increase over even 1992.  Their numbers had risen along with their group consciousness over several years (along with a simultaneous decline in the number of non-evangelical white Protestants), and in 1994 they finally flexed their electoral muscle, to the detriment of the country and the world.  They have remained a consistent voting block, turning out in large numbers for Rs ever since.

      I think what we're looking for is a "Latino 1994," where Latino turnout, which is now less than 50%, rises a bit and that community actually flexes its potentially very strong electoral muscle.  Given the Latino community's growing numbers, absolutely and as a percentage of the population and electorate, a rise in turn-out to even 55% (following a catalyst, say, comprehensive immigration reform?) would be, given recent voting trends, devastating to the Republican Party all over the place but especially in Texas.

    •  Poco a poco. This year Democrats got 7 seats (7+ / 0-)

      back in the state house to end the Republican supermajority.  They held their senate seats.  No, there wasn't a tsunami, but progress is being made.

    •  Texas Latinos don't register/vote (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Latinos in Texas don't register to vote, or vote, at nearly the rate of Latinos in, say, California. We need to support our Texas brothers and sisters in a grassroots effort to get Latinos to the polls. We've got the power. We need to use it.

    •  When Latino Texans decide (0+ / 0-)

      it's their time.  Their numbers keep going up and the Democratic Party is undoubtedly their vehicle, but there's a collective decision/feeling of some kind that it's not time yet engage the contest for control of the state in earnest.

      The next big turn in popular cultural and political generations in American society will likely be in 2018/19/20.  We had one in evidence in 1918-20, the next in the midst of WW2 i.e. around 1943, an obvious one in 1968, and the latest one in 1993/94.  Each of these had a couple of years of run up.

      The 1968-93ish period was politically basically all about White Americans.  As a white person, I found it mostly nauseatingly narcissistic and horribly banal.  But a lot of low status white ethnic groups that felt inferior and marginal and separatist became assertive and involved and mainstream.  

      1993ish to present has been fundamentally a period of grossly excessive obsessing and politicking about and with Definitely Not White Americans, i.e. African- and Middle Eastern- and Asian-Americans.  And these groups have become politically active and selfconfident and assertive and responsible about their share of power and say in American society.  How much more integrated into the (still) heavily white mainstream is hard to say at this point (this takes time and lots of outmarrying), but undoubtedly more assimilated and less fractious and combative.  This set of arguments is past peak and more or less decided, with everyone tired of it now and nothing novel to shock and upset them.  I give it five to ten years of slowly petering out and people quietly doing the right things- of no longer taking as much offense and no longer giving as much, and thereafter no longer having the terrible anxieties and fears about each other as in the past.

      Anyway, the point: around 2018-19-20 the current set of issues and arguments and major player groups in domestic politics will be exhausted and pretty much done and will fade.  Another generational change in the culture much like ones in 1968-69 and the early/mid Nineties is inevitable- and with it new groups ascendant, and new popular art and fashions, and new/different thinking.

      It's hard not to see Latino culture and social and political power and Latino issues be what finds its time and opportunity then, there probably being a kind of vacuum in these in American public life at that point.  White and black American pop culture are already running in ruts now.  The voters and tweens of the 2020s will be ever more heavily Latino or part Latino and increasing in total and relative numbers.   Who/what will be there to stop them?  I don't see what other than really untenable reactionary stupidity.  

      Given that, maybe it really is wisest for Latinos to wait a bit longer to be openly assertive and (in Latino eyes) let white and black Americans hash out their dreary internal and legacy problems (relative to Latinos) for a while longer.

      I think all of us here now will be quite surprised by how quickly and thoroughly a modern Latino culture and Latino people will be ascendant throughout U.S. society in the 2020s and 2030s.  Texas, Schmexas...what's coming is a lot bigger than just a change of who runs Texas.

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