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View Diary: The Election Wasn't As Close As You Think (108 comments)

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  •  I think should consider a wider analysis (0+ / 0-)

    In our electoral college system the 3.4+ million lead of Obama's didn't decide the winner.  We all know that.  

    From the very beginning anyone with a bit of sense knew this wasn't a battle about 50 states so much as a contest for the 10 or so swing states.

    The diary makes an excellent point about the "horse race" style presentation of the corporate medai.  It made for a weird dynamic of the evening

    Even as more of the blue states started getting called and Obama's victory was looking certain, on the Chicago airwaves, talking head extraordinaire Ron Majors, circled the popular vote with his pen and started talking about how the popular vote could diverge from the EV.

    I haven't screamed at the TV in decades, but I was all, "Wait for California you fucking idiot!"  Really scared the cat.

    But when the votes are all in we need to do a bit of additional math.  Because as of now, it appears that less than 400,000 votes decided the election.  In our EV system, that still sounds pretty good to me but I haven't compared it to a lot of previous elections.  (Although we all know the 2000 FL and 2004 OH stories.)  So don't get me wrong, I'm celebrating big time but I'm going to stay watchful about the future.  And what I see in the future is the possibility that amazing and effective campaign organizations like Obama's can be assembled again.  The strategies are known and the technology to back them up is a available.  I'm not willing to bet the future of our country on an assumption that the Repubs will never acquire those either.

    So  just now I quickly added some numbers from google elections starting from Romney's EV total of 206 and got this by adding EVs from each of these close states that Obama won (HTML tables broken, BTW?):

    FL - 29 EVs
    73,189

    OH - 18 EVs
    103,481

    VA - 13 EVs
    115,910

    IA - 6 EVs
    88,501

    new  Romney EV total - 272
    381,081 total votes difference

    What a system...

    I'm not liberal. I'm actually just anti-evil, OK? - Elon James White

    by Satya1 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 10:07:01 AM PST

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