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View Diary: The Great Shrinking GOP (121 comments)

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  •  Republicans Won Everyone Over Age 39 Running 1 (11+ / 0-)

    of the most stupendously bad campaigns --mostly apart from their issues-- anyone's ever seen.

    Just on narrow campaign logistics: It may well be that had they realized by mid summer or so that better polling (can't say mainstream since Gallup was terrible) was correct, had their modelling of the turnout demographics been accurate, and had their GOTV system not crashed on them on election day, we could easily be looking at a Republican white house.

    I can't disagree that many trends seems to be working against them long term; but to my eye, not very quickly. It's clear that their best candidates sat this year out. Fix that, fix the logistical failures of the campaign, and it's not hard to imagine them being highly competitive against a non-incumbent Democrat.

    Now if you're right that they're out of effective material for messaging, maybe we're in better shape.

    But I think we need to see a good 6-9 months while they regroup over there, before we can safely conclude they've painted themselves into a corner.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 01:33:11 PM PST

    •  Please do not let the electorate buy into (3+ / 0-)

      someone like Marco Rubio spewing the same old Republican platform plank propoganda and thinking that means change.   Same old wine in a brand new bottle/ minority face on an old broken message needs to be called out at every occurance.

      "Liberals feel unworthy of their possessions. Conservatives feel they deserve everything they've stolen." Mort Sahl

      by maggiemae on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 01:42:29 PM PST

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    •  If the economy improves as seems likely (10+ / 0-)

      the GOP will struggle to come back.  A struggling economy was what gave them the idea they would win this time but things are swinging against them very quickly on social issues - witness comparatively quick swing in favor of gay marriage, continued strong support for women's issues.  If Dems have the right side on economy and on social issues plus favorable demographics, about the only thing the GOP has going for it is the redistricting advantage.

      Also there is a diary somewhere that explains why Texas will go blue by 2024 or so.  Basically, it shows the kid population of Hispanics is huge and even if there is no more immigration, just on the basis of those kids growing up, the majority of voters will be Hispanic by 2024.  Texas has 38 electoral votes, I think.  Make it solidly blue and Ohio won't matter anymore.  Texas red to blue in 12 years is amazingly fast change.

      •  Don't forget that Bush "won" in 2000 against (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Miggles, yellowdog

        a quasi-incumbent when the economy was humming along just fine.  The economy isn't everything.

        And Republicans will gain back some percentage of Hispanics.  So while I think it likely (and I very much hope) that the GOP will "struggle to come back", I wouldn't take it for granted.

    •  When Romney lied about his positions, he did well (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      FiredUpInCA, BYw, codairem

      Their best candidates tend to be like that, I feel.  Some less compromised than others, but so few with any reasonable principles of value any longer that I feel our job is mostly to beat them on their demonstrated votes and extreme words that crop up from time to time - that is, throw all of them, including their better ones, anchors and see who can get back to air at the electoral surface.

      "So, please stay where you are. Don't move and don't panic. Don't take off your shoes! Jobs is on the way."

      by wader on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 04:29:02 PM PST

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    •  Think about it... (4+ / 0-)

      the economy barely moving along, near 8% unemployment, a changing, scary world (Europe and China), the Middle East in dangerous transition, a black man in the White House...

      AND THEY COULDN'T WIN. And they couldn't pick up ground in either house.

      If the economic times were good, Obamacare fully implemented (and thus growing in popularity), the GOP would have been chased out of Washington.

      •  I had that same thought yesterday. (0+ / 0-)

        And it neatly encapsulates the toxicity of the Republican brand.  This is what we'll need to have on our radars in future.  Republicans lose when they tell the truth about what they stand for; they know this.  It's why their labels for what they want or propose are Orwellian.  The "Clean Air" act, for instance.  It's why Karen Hughes, the other half of Bush's brain, can say she wants the next Republican who talks about rape to have their lips stapled shut--she wants the WORDS off the table.  Of COURSE you have to oppose abortion in all instances--rape, incest, life of the mother--that's not the problem.  It's saying it out loud that's the issue.  Every instance where a Republican gets caught saying what they really think, they say "oopsie", shouldn't have put it that way. They get very, very far with that because their "sorry if you were offended" crap is not challenged.

    •  But who are their best candidates? (0+ / 0-)

      and can they survive a primary given the pull of the crazy wing of the party?  What we saw in more than one district was that the best candidate, the most electable candidate, did not survive the primary process.

      "I watch Fox News for my comedy, and Comedy Central for my news." - Facebook Group

      by Sychotic1 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 08:06:56 PM PST

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    •  Thank You (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I keep hearing that this next election cycle is the end of the GOP due to demographics.  I have been hearing it for the better part of a decade actually.  The fact is that no matter how much demographics shift, the GOP will always have two things working for it 1. Money to buy air time for propaganda.  2. An electorate with a short attention span.  Two years after Bush left office (arguably the worst President in modern history) the GOP won midterms in a landslide.  

      The problem seems to me to be more of a midterm turnout problem than a demographic messaging problem.  

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