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View Diary: Public ready to blame Republicans if fiscal cliff talks fail (132 comments)

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  •  So you think it's a good thing (6+ / 0-)

    for a middle class family of four to owe the IRS an additional $3700 this April when they file their 2012 tax returns?

    And you think it's a good thing for layoffs to bring unemployment up to 9% and for the country to perhaps slide into recession?

    There most definitely is a fiscal cliff on January 1 that will have negative effects on middle class families -- but it's not because of the deficit or the long-term debt.  It's because that cliff was intentionally put there by Congress in the Budget Control Act of 2011, on the thinking that the consequences of the cliff would be bad enough so that it would force both sides to forge a deal before then.  

    •  not a cliff (6+ / 0-)

      cliff means all the damage happens in the instant you step off.

      here the damage is drawn out over a year ... if they agree on something a month into it it means we only fell 1/12 the way down.

      An ambulance can only go so fast - Neil Young

      by mightymouse on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 12:32:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  2012 taxes aren't affected (13+ / 0-)

      So April's taxes has no change whatsoever.

      It would be 2013 taxes, filed in April 2014 that would be affected. And possibly 2013 withholding, depending.

      •  ferg - I think coffeetalk is referring to an (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MPociask, Deep Texan

        ALTMIN  patch that expires at year end rather than the new Clinton era rates that will start on 1/1/13.

        "let's talk about that"

        by VClib on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 12:44:29 PM PST

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        •  that's not really fiscal cliff (9+ / 0-)

          Congress is fully capable of passing the AMT exemption as a standalone bill.

          It's also fully capable of passing the unemployment extension as a standalone bill.

          •  This message should be beaten like a drum (5+ / 0-)

            The Republican frame is, well, we'll do something to reform taxes, but ONLY IF we do entitlement reform.

            What the hell do those have to do with each other?  They both involve the federal budget?  We can reform tax loopholes and rates all by themselves.  

            Krugman's been on fire talking about refusing to deal with hostage-takers.  The President should refuse to let the Republicans take Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid as hostages.  And very loudly and repeatedly remind people that raising the Medicare eligibility age INCREASES, not deceases, the deficit.  

        •  And the alt min tax (6+ / 0-)

          Patch is something that is done every single year.

          I love polls like this.  How can anyone know what effect the fiscal cliff will have on their personal finances?  

          We're talking about the expiration of the annual AMT tax patch, the planned expiration of the Bush tax cuts (yes, they were designed and sold as sunsetting - that was part of the budget trickery pulled to soften the impact on the debt), and sequestration of military and discretionary spending.  Also, the expiration of the Obama payroll tax cut, also planned to end.

          At this point in time, none, some, or all of those things may happen.  The ones that do happen may be mitigated or changed by Congress and by executive authority.

          If you know how all of that is going to hit your bottom line, can you tell me next week's lotto numbers too?  

    •  How would we owe more in April (9+ / 0-)

      If the tax cuts don't expire until the end of this year?  Those tax cuts aren't retroactively expiring, are they?

      Because in that case, it's no fiscal cliff at all.  We could stop worrying immediately about the deficit.

      Since I doubt that is the case, I'm calling steaming bullshit on that one.

    •  There are numerous ways (5+ / 0-)

      to get around immediate impacts from a tax increase, so the effect is postponed until a good deal can be made.

      Do you have a line in the sand? What flavor of koolaid are you drinking?

      Think, we just had an election and which ideas won? We'll have more and better in office in Jan, so there's no looming threat, it is opportunity. Now is not the time to grab defeat from the jaws of victory

    •  Please go back to Red State… (0+ / 0-)

      …where those lies actually are believed.

      Teh stoopidTM, it hurts. Buy smart, union-printed, USA-made, signs, stickers, swag for everyone: DemSign.com. Get your We are the 99% Yard Sign.

      by DemSign on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 01:10:18 PM PST

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      •  Who's lying -- the Tax Policy Center or the CBO? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        VClib

        For the increase in taxes, including the fact that expiration of the AMT patch affects upper middle income households this year -- adding to the amounts they will owe when they file their 2012 returns this spring, see the Tax Policy Center study here, summarized in WaPo here.

        For the CBO's prediction of 9% unemployment and possible recession, see here:  

        Substantial changes to tax and spending policies are scheduled to take effect in January 2013, significantly reducing the federal budget deficit. According to CBO’s projections, if all of that fiscal tightening occurs, real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) will drop by 0.5 percent in 2013 (as measured by the change from the fourth quarter of 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2013)—reflecting a decline in the first half of the year and renewed growth at a modest pace later in the year. That contraction of the economy will cause employment to decline and the unemployment rate to rise to 9.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013. After next year, by the agency’s estimates, economic growth will pick up, and the labor market will strengthen, returning output to its potential level (reflecting a high rate of use of labor and capital) and shrinking the unemployment rate to 5.5 percent by 2018.
        The CBO report was reported all over when it came out on November 8.  See, e.g., here and here and here and here and here.
    •  Holey moley! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      VClib

      I did not realize the AMT for THIS year was part of the fiscal cliff!

      That's gonna hurt!

      •  why you don't negotiate with hostage takers (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mightymouse, vcmvo2, MPociask

        Last year the hostage was the debt ceiling.

        Now, apparently, the AMT patch is the hostage.

        Next year, it'll be the doc fix.

        The AMT patch isn't part of the fiscal cliff; it's an annual patch. It's just a new hostage for the Republicans.

    •  Taxes filed this April will be for (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      vcmvo2

      Calendar Year 2012 while the cuts are still in place for everyone. How will the go up $2700 immediately.

      They will only start to effect paychecks in regard to withholding in January which can be corrected quickly with the passage of a middle class cut

      The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation--HDT

      by cazcee on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 01:25:15 PM PST

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    •  IMHO (0+ / 0-)

      "on the thinking that the consequences of the cliff would be bad enough so that it would force both sides to forge a deal before then.  "

      More so on the thinking that they would avoid damage to their prospects for election and have a stronger bargaining position after the election.  Thankfully, the Dems won that bet!  

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