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View Diary: More accurate than Nate Silver or Markos—and simple, too (70 comments)

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  •  How do you get that VA leans Democratic by 2.7%? (1+ / 0-)
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    I realize we know have won the last 3 Democratic senator votes, and we had a pretty good run with 2 Democratic Governors, but this seems so counter-intuitive. It's a purple state at best in statewide races, but leaning red, not blue.  

    You might be giving to much credit to the Senate victories, 2 of which were due in no small part to George Allen being the GOP candidate. If you just look at VA officeholders right now, it's a very red state from top to bottom, except for those 2 US Senators. At the presidential level, Obama may have been helped by a large black population, 7% above the national average. That helped your model this year, but I wouldn't count on it in 4 years.

    Coming Soon -- to an Internet connection near you:

    by FischFry on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 10:56:09 AM PST

    •  The first table? (0+ / 0-)

      If you're talking about the first table, that's the predicted Democratic margin (Obama-Romney). It's not the same thing as the partisan lean of the state. The model says a Democratic candidate should end up with a margin about 1.0 point better than polls say - close to no effect.  The average of previous elections back to 2004 is about -0.5, again close to no effect. This means Virginia polls do not consistently favor one party or the other, but are generally close to the final outcome, as befits a purple state.

      •  With respect to Virginia (1+ / 0-)
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        I think there has been so much change since 2004 I really don't know how useful that data is.

        The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

        by fladem on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 02:15:47 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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