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View Diary: More accurate than Nate Silver or Markos—and simple, too (70 comments)

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  •  The Literary Digest Poll (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, GoUBears, IM

    which basically used the same methodology, was fairly accurate in 1920, 1924, 1928 and 1932, but completely bombed 1936.  I think this is an inherent problem with taking huge, but biased, samples.  As long as your sample bias doesn't lean too much one way or the other, you get decent results, but the first year you have a slight skew in there, you're hosed.

    30, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

    Truman: "The buck stops here!"
    Romney: "The buck stops somewhere in the next county..."

    by Marcus Graly on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 07:08:14 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  Literary Digest used self-selected sample... (0+ / 0-)

      .... how is that happening here?  What sample exactly is biased in this case?  As far as I can tell, DRM is just looking at the partisan lean based on previous polls and then at trends from newer polls.  All of these polls are the same ones Nate looks at. Right?

      "Happiness is the only good. The place to be happy is here. The time to be happy is now. The way to be happy is to make others so." - Robert Ingersoll

      by dackmont on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 07:16:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think he means 7-11 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        IM

        Literary Digest, IIRC, was a mail-in poll from readers - a self-selected sample like 7-11.

        In Soviet Russia, you rob bank. In America, bank robs you.

        by badger on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 10:04:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oh, you're right, sorry Marcus.... (0+ / 0-)

          My bad, I lost track of threading/indentations.

          "Happiness is the only good. The place to be happy is here. The time to be happy is now. The way to be happy is to make others so." - Robert Ingersoll

          by dackmont on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 11:36:43 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

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