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View Diary: More accurate than Nate Silver or Markos—and simple, too (70 comments)

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  •  PVI is a lousy measure (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Garrett, GoUBears, seriously70, IM

    You ask,

    Is there a better measure for state partisanship than Obama's 2008 vote share?
    The advantage of the PVI is that someone has already done it, now anyone can do it, and it is constantly cited.

    But there needs to be a better measure. The presidential race figures depend too much on the individual candidates and other special factors not present in the basic lean of a state's vote.

    A few years back someone suggested that the better measure of a state's partisan lean is to avoid the top-of-the-ticket marquee races. Instead, calculate the average margin of downballot races like State Treasurer, Attorney General, Secretary of State, etc. That is, nobody votes for Joe Superstar for State Auditor, they all vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for Auditor.

    But someone would have to do a lot of work to calculate such a better measure of state-level partisanship.

    •  Thanks (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, jhop7, Scientician, seriously70

      That's a good idea. I think I will give it a trial run with one or two states and see if it works at all. One would guess it would work better for Governor's races. But maybe not with President - cause then you have the superstar factor overwhelming things.

    •  I'm not sure PVI is so bad (5+ / 0-)

      Because what you're measuring is the performance of a presidential candidate relative to that candidate's average performance, nationwide. So the average margin of victory or defeat for that candidate is disregarded.

      I think your idea is a good one, though, as an adjunct to PVI. However, I'd caution that there are some states like North Dakota, Montana, and especially West Virginia and Kentucky, where people are more likely to vote Democratic downballot than for president, however, and others where the situation is reversed, like Pennsylvania.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 01:47:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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