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View Diary: More accurate than Nate Silver (308 comments)

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  •  It's because (8+ / 0-)

    the data was skewed Red. Remember, all three of us leaned heavily on the polling numbers. If the polls had been wrong, all three of us would've been wrong.

    I strayed from the polling composite in several places (OH, NV, IA). In all three states I expected Obama to do better based on outside factors (early vote and new voter registrations). I was right in two of them, NV and IA, and had my biggest miss in the other, OH.

    •  Kos, its not a criticism .. all were awesome (4+ / 0-)

      "the data was skewed Red" . Thanks, that clicked.

      I guess my real question is how do we measure the effects of GOTV efforts in real time?

      An effective GOTV seems to be worth about 1 to 2 points.  The underlying formal polling methodologies didn't capture it. You subjectively added some of that back in from the early voting and registration.

      That is the part of the vote that is potentially controllable at the immediate, micro level. Having a real-time performance measure would be a powerful motivational tool for GOTV workers. Not just "we've registered 200,000 new voters so far", but "we have already gained 1.1% in the polls and there is another potential 3% still out there".

      In the past, that would have been a hard statement to defend. But the collective performance of you, Nate, etc. make me think that this level of precision may not be out of reach.

      Maturity: Doing what you know is right - even though you were told to do it

      by grapes on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:19:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  That I would love to see (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        side pocket

        Great comments, grapes.

        Thank you!

        "Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism." Hubert H. Humphrey

        by Onomastic on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:20:56 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  The CW is that (4+ / 0-)

        GOTV is worth at most two points, and perhaps that's what we saw.

        Now GOTV isn't a one-sided affair. We know the GOP is doing their own GOTV. And traditionally, they've been better at it with their network of megachurches driving the machine.

        So we can't just add a point here and there unless we fully understand what the other side is doing. And that's never really possible.

        Furthermore, we knew the GOP was doing better in early voting this year than in 2008, but we didn't know if that was new voters, or unreliable voters, or people who would've voted regardless, whether early or on election day.

        The campaigns have the best data and ability to track that info, not just for themselves, but what the other side is doing (based on their own polling and statistical modeling). But they won't share that info outside of their campaigns.

        So we're left with incomplete, imperfect data.

        And by the way, I didn't take your comment as criticism. The thought didn't even occur to me.

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