Skip to main content

View Diary: More accurate than Nate Silver (308 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Two things: 1) Sabermetrics is debunked (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nellgwen, Onomastic

    by the success of the San Francisco Giants, who rejected the practice in favor of less emphasis on stats and more emphasis good human resources practices. Sabermetrics was always flawed (ask the Oakland A's when they last one the world series), because the stats didn't capture things like willingness to sacrifice for the team. The Giants won the world series with the least regular season home runs in the league.

    In other words, don't discount the power of combining statistical knowledge with softer skills like experience and understanding of cultural factors.

    Ultimately nate stuck to pure numbers and markos did something slightly different, as he got slightly different numbers. Perhaps that's where the softer skills kicked in.

    •  Sabermetrics can't be "debunked"-- (0+ / 0-)

      it is the science of baseball/sports statistics. What may have been debunked is the way Billy Beane has been using it. Bill James himself works for the Red Sox, and they won 2 WS; he has the rings to prove it.

      "Lone catch of the moon, the roots of the sigh of an idea there will be the outcome may be why?"--from a spam diary entitled "The Vast World."

      by bryduck on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:32:21 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Actually, you can debunk the notion (0+ / 0-)

        that a set of statistics around specific actions in a game can predict human behavior in a team sport.

        As for the red sox success, why do you assume it is because of sabermetrics? Perhaps during those seasons they simply managed their people better.

        •  They attributed at least some of their success (0+ / 0-)

          to James, at least according to the Wikipedia article on him. He is still employed by them, too--they are speaking with their wallets . . .

          But sabermetrics is not predictions. It is the body of statistics that the predictions or managerial actions may be based on. The statistics are what they are--theoretically more accurate measuring tools than what came before. What people do with them is what you are talking about, and we may never know if the sabermetricians are right or wrong, because no team--A's or Sox or anyone--has fully subscribed to using them exclusively (as if you could.)
          Beane may have come closest, but can you really say he failed? You would have to know what would have happened to the A's if he wasn't their GM doing what he did. Maybe they did better than they would have otherwise, which is all that can be attributed to his use of sabermetrics. That they never won the WS is more likely an indictment of their inability to pay the best players to come to Oakland regardless of traditional v. sabermetric analysis.
          The best sabermetrically-measured players are frequently the best traditionally-measured ones, too. It's at levels below the very top that sabermetrics can help a club, but most saliently they can also identify those whose performances don't merit inclusion at the very top. If you could choose the best 9 players in the game and had them play another set of 9 players repeatedly, the best would win 80-90% of the time.
          The issue is twofold: 1) identifying the best players is the easiest task for a sabermetrician to solve in a real world situation; however, 2) the most important task is to find the best players that one can afford to hire.

          "Lone catch of the moon, the roots of the sigh of an idea there will be the outcome may be why?"--from a spam diary entitled "The Vast World."

          by bryduck on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:23:07 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Theo is a big believer in statistics. It's something I hope he brings to the Cubs.

        And the difference between the A's and the Red Sox isn't stats, it's budget. Billy Beane uses stats to find the least valued skills that can help him win games, so that he can afford to field a competitive baseball team. Theo could find the most valuable skills to win a baseball game, regardless of cost.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site