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View Diary: More accurate than Nate Silver (308 comments)

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  •  Not so fast (1+ / 0-)
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    Kos can legitimately brag about his own final calls, but not so much about the DailyKos-commissioned PPP polls.
    As Nate Silver has pointed out, many pollsters improved their final accuracy by "herding": readjusting the model at the end to get the results to agree more closely with other pollsters.  PPP was one of these: its accuracy over the last three weeks was only in the middle of the pack.  This means that they must have been worse than average three weeks out, but near-perfect at the end. How did they do so well when they only called cell phones?  The answer appears to be that they tweaked their turnout model to the point where the results landed near the middle.

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