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View Diary: More accurate than Nate Silver (308 comments)

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  •  The CW is that (4+ / 0-)

    GOTV is worth at most two points, and perhaps that's what we saw.

    Now GOTV isn't a one-sided affair. We know the GOP is doing their own GOTV. And traditionally, they've been better at it with their network of megachurches driving the machine.

    So we can't just add a point here and there unless we fully understand what the other side is doing. And that's never really possible.

    Furthermore, we knew the GOP was doing better in early voting this year than in 2008, but we didn't know if that was new voters, or unreliable voters, or people who would've voted regardless, whether early or on election day.

    The campaigns have the best data and ability to track that info, not just for themselves, but what the other side is doing (based on their own polling and statistical modeling). But they won't share that info outside of their campaigns.

    So we're left with incomplete, imperfect data.

    And by the way, I didn't take your comment as criticism. The thought didn't even occur to me.

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