Skip to main content

View Diary: More accurate than Nate Silver (308 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  They attributed at least some of their success (0+ / 0-)

    to James, at least according to the Wikipedia article on him. He is still employed by them, too--they are speaking with their wallets . . .

    But sabermetrics is not predictions. It is the body of statistics that the predictions or managerial actions may be based on. The statistics are what they are--theoretically more accurate measuring tools than what came before. What people do with them is what you are talking about, and we may never know if the sabermetricians are right or wrong, because no team--A's or Sox or anyone--has fully subscribed to using them exclusively (as if you could.)
    Beane may have come closest, but can you really say he failed? You would have to know what would have happened to the A's if he wasn't their GM doing what he did. Maybe they did better than they would have otherwise, which is all that can be attributed to his use of sabermetrics. That they never won the WS is more likely an indictment of their inability to pay the best players to come to Oakland regardless of traditional v. sabermetric analysis.
    The best sabermetrically-measured players are frequently the best traditionally-measured ones, too. It's at levels below the very top that sabermetrics can help a club, but most saliently they can also identify those whose performances don't merit inclusion at the very top. If you could choose the best 9 players in the game and had them play another set of 9 players repeatedly, the best would win 80-90% of the time.
    The issue is twofold: 1) identifying the best players is the easiest task for a sabermetrician to solve in a real world situation; however, 2) the most important task is to find the best players that one can afford to hire.

    "Lone catch of the moon, the roots of the sigh of an idea there will be the outcome may be why?"--from a spam diary entitled "The Vast World."

    by bryduck on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:23:07 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site