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View Diary: Unskewed and undistinguished: The 5 most gloriously awful polls of 2012 (129 comments)

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  •  poll numbers (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser, Delevie

    What are the latest aggregate numbers for House races?  If we awarded House seats on a national basis, what would our majority be in this chamber?  To me, this needs to be mass communicated, Dems didn't lose the House, gerrymandering did.

    Apres Bush, le deluge.

    by melvynny on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 08:05:43 AM PST

    •  Very close (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      shaso

      I was tracking the numbers through an AP feed, but they stopped updating after the 14th. Numbers at that time had Dems up a little over a million in contested races, but the GOP with a five seat advantage in uncontested races. Only a few of the uncontested seats have vote counts released, but those that do average 224K each. On that basis the Dems were behind 86K in total, but had been closing the gap very quickly and would most likely be ahead at this point.

      Early reports by ThinkProgress and HuffPo gave the Dems a lead, but did not account for the uncontested seats.

      Disclaimer: If the above comment can possibly be construed as snark, it probably is.

      by grubber on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 08:45:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  it seems more complicated than this (0+ / 0-)

        What are you calling 'unopposed'?  1 candidate on the ballot? D v D or R v R in a state like California[does the party get credit for both candidates votes]? Major Party candidate v minor party candidate(s)?  The problem is that a token candidate of a Major Party might still get 20-30% of the vote, or they may get 5%.  Do you try to extrapolate from the undervote/minor party vote?

        •  Boehner (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Oh Mary Oh

          Nobody else on the ballot, no Green, no Libertarian, no The Rent is Too Damn High etc. There were a couple hundred write-ins, but Boehner was the only one on the ballot, and got 240K votes. Only OH and GA SOS reported results for these unopposed races. There were 9 GOP and 4 Dem unopposed races. There are other races with only one major party candidate, plus a third party, but those votes were reported the same as any D v R race.

          The DvD and RvR races get both sets of votes. I figure it is similar to one of the races with only one major party represented, and all these voters did vote for representation by that party.

          This feed also had short term, unexpired term races, which I did not count.

          http://hosted.ap.org/...

          Disclaimer: If the above comment can possibly be construed as snark, it probably is.

          by grubber on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 09:30:56 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  token candidates (0+ / 0-)

          There were 25 Republicans that received less than 20% of the vote including 4 under 10%.  The worst democrat, and only below 20%, clocks in at 19%.

          •  Not sure where you are going (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            All I am trying to do is get 'aggregate numbers for House races,' which is what the OP asked for.

            Disclaimer: If the above comment can possibly be construed as snark, it probably is.

            by grubber on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 09:54:15 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

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