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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 11/16 (490 comments)

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  •  How will Democrats lose the NY State Senate? (14+ / 0-)

    Theoretically if the Democrats could keep themselves together Simcha Felder would come back (since he needs to be in the majority to bring goodies back to his district).  But we all know that is not going to happen.  It's not a matter of if but how and when.  This is the not ready for prime time gang who desperately wants to lose.

    Something to keep in mind for organizing the Senate you can win with a plurality.  So anyone can renege and just not vote for the Democrats.  In fact if the Democrats could all somehow stay together Simcha Felder would probably STILL wink-wink vote for Skelos and then support and caucus with the Democrats.  Like he did in the City Council when he supported Christine Quinn but never technically voted for her since he had to go to the bathroom so badly that he ended up missing the vote preventing him from voting for a lesbian.

    The options.

    1) Cecilia Tkaczyk loses.  Simcha Felder votes for Republican Skelos.  IDC votes for Klein or sit on their hands while whispering sweat nothings to the Republicans and retaining their chairmanships.  Democrats vote for Sampson.  Back home the IDC claims their votes would not have mattered anyway but they really really do want a Democrat as majority leader.

    2) Tkaczyk wins.  Democrats support Sampson.  IDC twiddles their thumbs and Simcha follow the money.  Skelos becomes majority leader.

    3) Democrats agree to support Klein for Majority leader.  Either Malcolm Smith (who wants that Wilson-Pakula to run for mayor) or old gang of four-er Ruben Diaz Sr use it as an excuse to get some goodies from the Republicans.

    4) Democrat to be named later who is NOT Diaz and Smith but who wants some goodie such as say being Majority Leader or President Pro Tempore.  Of course this could backfire on the Republicans if Simcha Felder protests and asks the question, "But then why not me?"

    5) The decent and honorable Democrats like Tony Avella feel out of place and decide to run for more respectable jobs with more respectable colleagues.

    6) Democratic leader John Sampson and perhaps others arrested for misdoings with contracts at Aquaduct Racetrack.

    7) Democrats find a new and inventive way to screw up.

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 09:32:14 AM PST

    •  I'm so glad (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, Taget, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

      my state manages to cover itself in glory like this.

      Interesting post, though.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 09:40:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  WTF (9+ / 0-)

      is wrong with Democrats in this chamber? I mean they make Kim Kardashian and the other misfits of Hollywood look like saints who go to church every Sunday in comparison.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 10:29:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Willie Brown (7+ / 0-)

      Back several decades there was a Democratic leader of the State Assembly of CA, whose engineering skills excelled those of the NY Senate:

      " During the last of his three allowed post-initiative terms, Brown maintained control of the Assembly despite a slim Republican majority by gaining the vote of several Republicans. Near the end of his final term, Brown left the legislature to become mayor of San Francisco."

      " During their tenures, Brown was the de facto Speaker."

      This control only lasted until the Rs recalled the straying legislators-many months later

      I have always been of the opinion that the term limits amendments to the constitution were designed to get rid of Brown, among other things.

      But I am inclined to think that the Rs never again have had either the state senate or state assembly.

      •  your last statement is correct! n/t (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ellefarr, MichaelNY

        "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

        by lordpet8 on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 11:16:57 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Politics is a long game (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, Taget, lordpet8, MichaelNY

          I was recently reading a book about the rivalry between Nixon, Knight, Warren and Knowland in the 40s/50-s and it is easy to forget how utterly dominant the Republican Party once was in CA  - to the point they had FOUR potential Presidential candidates that were all at various points of three cycles (48,52,56) considered front-runners for a place on the ticket.
          So I would not say never. At all. On current trends, I would not see it going back to the GOP in at least a decade or two in the best telling for them - if they manage to change the underlying dynamic.
          But, say, imagine CA goes bankrupt? You just don't know what will happen. Until Proposition 187, there was no reason Hispanics would hate the Republicans like they do. We are never far away from a major mistake that changes the trajectory.

          •  Hispanics have been reliably Democratic (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            BeloitDem, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

            for generations. Maybe Prop 187 instigated a greater level of political engagement, but the underlying demographic trends were already there. And while it's possible to imagine the republicans softening their stances on some issues in order to pick up a slightly larger percentage of hispanics, it's really hard to imagine what would cause them to become an actual republican-leaning constituency, short of a wholesale ideological realignment of the parties.

            •  I don't disagree (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              But prop 187 made them unwinnable by such larger margins as to make it near impossible for Republicans to win statewide.
              It is one thing for a demographic to lean Dem and another for them to vote overwhelmingly for one party and refuse to consider another.

          •  Nice (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera, MichaelNY

            It just doesn't look like it will change anytime soon, They've really just become a party of no in my state, they really don't stand for much else at this point.
            As for CA going bankrupt looks we're actually goint to be getting out of the red soon

            prior to prop 187 hispanics were only narrowly favoring dems.

            But you're right that politics is fluid and things can change, but for now things haven't been better for the Dems than are now in CA.

            ps you totally should read my diary series on CA politics:


            I'll be covering prop 187 in my next installment

            "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

            by lordpet8 on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 12:30:51 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, Willie Brown was the poster child (7+ / 0-)

           for the term limits people, and some of the pro-term limits voters were specifically trying to get rid of him. A lot of that was Fear of the Uppity Black Dude, since Willie is in reality a rather business-friendly establishment Democrat.

            1994 was the last time a red wave hit CA in a regularly scheduled election. The special recall election that gave us the Califuehrer was a different type of fluke. In 1996 the Dems got back the Assembly majority and we have held it ever since.

            Willie Brown was just smarter than the CA GOPs. It led to some interesting soap opera antics. Who can forget the late great Speaker Doris Allen? When her fellow Repubs gave her a hard time she derided them for having small penises! Of course she was recalled a few months later...

            Nowadays if we want to follow a soap opera we have the Los Angeles Lakers. To which I say "Go Clippers".

        Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

        by Zack from the SFV on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 11:29:55 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  That was incredibly awsome. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ellefarr, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        Republican after Republican kept on defecting.  Love him or hate him Willie Brown knew how to get things done.

        The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

        by Taget on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 12:18:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  When Willie Brown first got the apeakership (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tommypaine, MichaelNY, BeloitDem, jncca, Taget

        of the Assembly in 1980, he won it with the support of...the Republicans. His opponent for the post? None other than Howard Berman.

        22, D, CA-12 (old CA-08).

        by kurykh on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 02:39:33 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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