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View Diary: Don't Even Let Nate Silver Deter You In 2014 (108 comments)

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  •  easy call for Nate (0+ / 0-)

    Not exactly a bold prediction by Nate. He is a damn good poker player and he knows the odds are strongly against the Dems taking back the house in 2014.  That said, there are a few things to consider here:

    A quick perusal of the hotly contested races showed the Dems did very well:  Just 5 pickups in California alone.  Also, check out this chart from CNN:  Some have been updated as we now know, for instance that the Dems took ALL 3 competitive house seats in Arizona as well as Mcintyre's in NC.

    Most importantly, there are still close to 50 districts that Obama won in 2012 that are represented by the GOP.  I believe the Party and activists need to hold Obama's feet to the fire and have him actively campaign in those districts in 2014 for the Democratic Rep, as well as use the massive fundraising apparatus at his disposal.  Obama has walked through the fire and come out the other side stronger.  Assuming he plays the Fiscal Cliff Bar well, which I think he will, he will easily be the most popular political figure in the country, with no GOP figure even coming close.

    Obama needs to go into those districts that voted for him in 2012 and STILL voted for Joe Tea Party in the house.  He needs to tell those voters "I know you believe in me and what I stand for, and I need you to send my good friend Sally Progressive back to Washington to help me get it done."

    Not at all beyond the pale if he did that he could pul 20 "Obamacan" districts over to the blue side of the aisle.

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