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View Diary: Don't Even Let Nate Silver Deter You In 2014 (108 comments)

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  •  I can appreciate your viewpoint, I just happen to (0+ / 0-)

    disagree with your assessment of the political leanings of the majority of young voters.  Your statement that

    young voters in CA, who are overwhelmingly nonwhite, irreligious, GBLT-friendly and pro-choice, socially liberal and economically borderline socialist
    basically agrees with what I said in the comment above.  I agree with the non white, gay friendly, pro choice and socially liberal.

    I am not sure about the irreligious part as that can be defined many different ways.  If by irreligious you mean they don't go to church or have the same social view of the religions that previous generations may have had, I would agree with you. If by irreligious you mean young folk today do not believe in some form of higher power, then I disagree with you.

    I completely disagree with the borderline socialist part.  If you stated that the under 30 crowd has a certain sense of entitlement and has a very short attention span then I would say that tends to be true, however that does not equate to socialist.

    My basic premise was the GOP is not dead.  It may very well die, I was stating if they were to pivot to the libertarian social liberalism with all that entails, and they were to actually adopt the libertarian fiscal conservatism  then they could have a chance.  Just because it is the GOP/Republican party does not mean the under 30 crowd would dismiss them out of hand as many liberals would like them to.

    I have quite a bit of contact with many different people under 30, one is even my partner, what I have experienced is those that are politically aware are not all the same.  Some of the under 30 crowd are very anti government, mainly due to a negative experience having to do with that government.  They also tend not to differentiate much between local, state and federal government.  The local police have as much to do with the viewpoint on the federal government as the Navy has to do with the viewpoint on the local cops.  This cross pollination as it were is not specific to age either, my dad has the same problem and he is in his 70's.

    Making rash statement that the GOP has "no chance with young voters" is quite frankly not only short sighted but will cause liberals to relax and allow the GOP to do just what I am talking about.  No age group, ethnic background, skin color, lgbt or any other designation that may be deemed appropriate is monolithic.  Remember 30% of hispanics and asians nationwide voted for someone other than Obama.  As they become a larger part of the electorate that number only has to be moved a few points toward the GOP and they can again be in charge of the federal, state or local governments.

    To finish this off, to assume that because some folks voted in an election to reelect President Obama those same folks can not be persuaded to vote for a Gary Johnson next time would be arrogant and unwise.

    As to your points about the fringe of the GOP base that you think can not be persuaded to change tactics and message, they were persuaded to think what they do now, it is not that hard to shift a message.  Also your reference to the 90's is also outdated.  The folks who are going to be entering the electorate were children when Pete Wilson did his thing.  The under 30 crowd now think of the GOP and remember the Terminator.

    "If Tyranny and Oppression come to this land, it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy" James Madison 4th US President

    by padeius on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 09:16:29 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  the choices the CA GOP made in the 90s (0+ / 0-)

      to harden their political identity as a white supremacy, anti-tax, anti-government, anti-urban, anti-coastal, religious conservative party had the effect of making it much harder for the rank and file to accept deviations from that core identity, it purged the CA GOP of the sort of moderates who might now be able to appeal to the supermajority of californians they have loudly and publicly deemed their enemies, that in turn devastated their bench and limited them to reactionary pockets instead of swing districts, and gave them a hateful inertia that really hurt their chances in the zeroes and even moreso in the second decade of the 21st century. it is not a matter of the fringe, that identity defines the ideology and identity of the shrinking base of the CA GOP, and any deviations are punished at the polls, in primaries or increasingly via recalls following a single dissenting vote.

      by borderline socialist i meant that a growing majority of young californians are now openly in favor of a social welfare state such as found in social democracies in europe. they are not anti-tax, anti-regulation, or anti-government or public sphere in the way that middle aged white californians accept as conventional wisdom. yes, there are a handful of conservative or libertarian young californians, but they are seriously outnumbered by their liberal peers. some occupy activists are pretty down on the local police and local governments that hire them to beat protesters, but not at all in the way that the GOP is anti-government, and they know that the GOP defines itself by its enthusiasm for supporting cops beating kids.

      by irreligious i mean that the numbers of atheist and agnostic californians are far higher and growing fastest among young voters, and that their rate of attendance at church, that their membership in religious organizations are all far, far lower than among older californians and dropping fast. thus, they are not attracted by the GOP's conservative christian message, and increasingly are repelled by it.

      as for your statement about the nationwide "30% of asians and latinos voted for romney," those numbers are decidedly lower in CA: 72% of latinos and 79% of asians in CA voted for obama, and i would be willing to bet that the quarter and fifth of those voters in the latino and asian communities, respectively, are far more heavily located in the older more conservative (and in some cases vestigially anticommunist) generations and at the upper bound of the income scale.  the future of CA is in those young voters, though, and the GOP is losing, not winning their share of the vote, and their younger siblings, friends and relative not yet 18 are watching and listening very carefully to the right's steady stream of hateful rhetoric demonizing their ethnic groups. they are not going to vote for this party, any more than blacks or jews - two similarly demonized groups who do not swing between parties - do.

      the GOP cannot adopt a social libertarian facade without deeply offending its base, which it needs to win any elections. the youth show no signs of adopting a conservative economic stance, and your suggestion that they might, minus any evidence, and in the face of poll after poll of increasing economic liberalism among the millennials, is simply handwaving. quite frankly, younger californians don't have enough wealth or privilege to be receptive to that sort of "i've got mine, screw the rest of you" that has resonated among older, whiter californians since the 70s. they know that they rely on the public sphere, and they know that it needs to be paid for with taxes. in that regard, they are far brighter than their elders, who have been voting for free candy and trying to bill the kids for decades.

      the california GOP is dead, their party establishment knows it, their donors know it, and anyone who can read a poll or follow the voter registration stats by county knows it, because they can read the writing on the wall. they painted themselves into a corner, and now their base will not let them leave it, any more than we would tolerate democrats actively courting racists anymore like the party did during the new deal.

      •  This tells me you need (0+ / 0-)

        to get out of the liberal bubble:

        some occupy activists are pretty down on the local police and local governments that hire them to beat protesters, but not at all in the way that the GOP is anti-government, and they know that the GOP defines itself by its enthusiasm for supporting cops beating kids.
        The GOP is not the political party that is currently in control of the local and state authorities here in California.  The authorities who were beating the kids here and in New York and elsewhere were not the GOP, they were the Democrats.  The GOP had nothing to do with the pushback against the Occupy movement here in CA.  Just to be clear it was the Democrats who controlled the beating of the Occupy movement here in CA.

        You can live in your bubble if you choose to, I for one choose to live in the reality based world where the possibilities are not limited to what we think will happen based on our personal hopes.  I have been wrong many times in my life, each time I was wrong it was because I allowed myself to believe what I wanted to be factual, instead of what the facts really were.

        This started out as a discussion of Nate Silvers prediction that the Dem's will not be able to take back the House in 2014. We should try to get Dem's elected and work as hard as we can to accomplish this goal.  I for one will side with Nate on his prediction after all he only got one race wrong, nationwide.  What you are trying to say may come to pass, as the young get older and vote, CA may very well become even more of a bastion of Social Liberalism than it has already.

        The future of the Democratic party will, for a large part, depend on what they are able to actually accomplish with the new supermajorities in the assembly and the senate.  If the Dem's screw it up and do not deliver a functioning well run government, then the Dem's will be on the trash heap right along with the GOP.

        Nice discussion, take care.

        "If Tyranny and Oppression come to this land, it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy" James Madison 4th US President

        by padeius on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 11:20:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  it is worth pointing out that nate didn't speak (0+ / 0-)

          to the house races, except in generalized terms, in 2012. were he crunching the numbers by district, i would be more likely to defer to his analysis, but he's not really looking at house races beyond generic national numbers.

      •  as for registration numbers (0+ / 0-)

        i offer for your perusal an analysis by county of voter registration shifts just from 2006-10, trends that if anything accelerated leftwards in 2012. no 10 point majority GOP district in a county where dems are picking up 5-6% every four years is going to be safe in the coming decade.

        if you think occupy is going to go GOP in the coming decade, you're in a bubble of your own.

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