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View Diary: AZ CD-2 now being called for Democrat Ron Barber (90 comments)

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  •  Thanks for posting this, good news for the House (11+ / 0-)

    ...and good news for Arizona.  I'm guessing it'll be a swing state in 2016 too.

    •  Silver -Democrats Unlikely to Regain House in 2014 (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tytalus, whataboutbob, kurt, Amber6541, elwior



      Democrats did not have as strong a performance in races for the United States House of Representatives last week as they did in the contests for the Senate and the presidency. Instead, Republicans retained control of the chamber.

      But Democrats did regain some ground in the House. Although several races remain uncalled, Democrats would wind up with 201 seats in the House if all races are assigned to the current leader in the vote count – an improvement from the 193 seats Democrats held after the 2010 midterm elections. That would leave Democrats needing to pick up 17 seats to win control of the chamber in 2014.

      Although 17 seats is not an extraordinary number, both historical precedent in midterm election years and a deeper examination of this year’s results would argue strongly against Democrats being able to gain that many seats.

      "Tax cuts for the 1% create jobs." -- Republicans, HAHAHA - in China

      by MartyM on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 09:24:21 AM PST

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      •  Unpleasant, perhaps, but honest (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kurt, Amber6541, elwior, PSzymeczek

        We might as well go into it knowing that it will be tough. That's different from hopelessness and despair.

        Moving forward, consider the Congressional Progressive Caucus' Deal for All as a solution to the lame-duck budget and sequestration crisis. Democrats won, now use that!

        by tytalus on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 09:30:03 AM PST

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      •  He is basing his prediction on historical (12+ / 0-)


        You know what they say when they advertise mutual funds: "past performance is not a guarantee of future earnings."

        The future is ours to make.

        And God said, "Let there be light"; and with a Big Bang, there was light. And God said "Ow! Ow My eyes!" and in a flash God separated light from darkness. "Whew! Now that's better. Now where was I. Oh yea . . ."

        by Pale Jenova on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 09:32:00 AM PST

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        •  but the problem is that (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Pale Jenova

          Presidential elections bring out more of the inconsistent voters and most of them sadly are Dems.

          If Democrats were unable to take back the House this election, it is highly unlikely that they'll be able to do it in 2 years.

          In fact, I would expect Republicans to win back all of these seat gains and a few more in 2014.

          I also worry about the Senate being flipped, especially if President Obama appoints Kerry to a cabinet position and Brown is back in the Senate again.

          Off year elections are usually not good for the party of the sitting President.   Add in the newly gerrymandered districts and it doesn't look good for the Dems winning the House any time soon.

          •  The Repubs won most of the easy seats in 2010 (0+ / 0-)

            So the ceiling is not very high for them in the House.

            The Senate is more of a problem. However, if Democrats and Barack Obama lead by being Democrats--not the half-hearted, squishy, Grand Bargainy, bipartisany, compromisey, reach-across-the-aisle-and-snuggle-wuggle-our-Republican-friends center right Republican lite crap we saw before 2010, we can beat the odds.

            But Nate Silver is right--historically, the odds are against us. Bill Clinton did beat them in 1998 however.

            And God said, "Let there be light"; and with a Big Bang, there was light. And God said "Ow! Ow My eyes!" and in a flash God separated light from darkness. "Whew! Now that's better. Now where was I. Oh yea . . ."

            by Pale Jenova on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 06:58:48 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  The districts were not so badly (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Pale Jenova

              gerrymandered and that was a backlash against the whole impeachment nonsense.

              Don't get me wrong, the Republicans are ignorant enough to implode as we've seen in the last 2 election cycles with Teahadist candidates.

              The thing is, even this election cycle with all the rape and contraceptive nonsense Dems still came up short in the House.

              I'm hoping like hell to be wrong, but I really don't see a way to regaining the House in 2014.    I can see hanging onto the Senate by a fingernail though.

      •  The historical precedent (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tytalus, MartyM, whataboutbob, elwior

        is that the party that lost the previous midterm election wins the present one, so I'm not worried.

        The real anomaly from historical precedent and cycles is the 2012 election- which has to do with internal Republican Party failure to adjust itself to where it could persuade the swing voter bloc that it was functional and qualified to govern the country well enough.

      •  A lot can happen in 2 years (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tytalus, Amber6541, elwior

        And we have to make sure that we get voters out in 2014 and beat Nate's current perdictions.

        Never be afraid to voice your opinion and fight for it . Corporations aren't people, they're Republicans (Rev Al Sharpton 10/7/2011)

        by Rosalie907 on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 11:37:17 AM PST

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    •  Barber's win would make him the 200th Democratic (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tytalus, JBraden, Amber6541, PSzymeczek

      Congressperson, after we prevailed in the 3 close California races, and in Florida (whether or not Allen Lunatic West concedes).
        That would leave only NC-7, where we are ahead.

      "We the People of the United States...." -U.S. Constitution

      by elwior on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 09:59:21 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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