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View Diary: AZ CD-2 now being called for Democrat Ron Barber (90 comments)

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  •  The AP has also called it for Barber (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tytalus, elwior, Azazello

    Link

    Though I don't get how it was this close.  This district was supposedly more Democratic than the old 8th--how'd Romney do here?

    Romney-Ryan: America's Rollback Team

    by Christian Dem in NC on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 11:15:31 AM PST

    •  Cochise makes a difference (3+ / 0-)

      In Pima county, where Tucson is, Obama won 194,298 to 170,090. In Cochise county, Obama lost 18,546 to 29,497. And CD-2 includes all of Cochise and just some of Pima. You can search the voting results here to look at the by-county breakdowns, and you can see here how CD-2 looks on a map.

      I think anyone who lives in CD-2 like me would also mention a high volume of ads about this race. Republican organizations targeted it. But I also saw some from our side. I don't know yet what the cash breakdown looks like.

      Moving forward, consider the Congressional Progressive Caucus' Deal for All as a solution to the lame-duck budget and sequestration crisis. Democrats won, now use that!

      by tytalus on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 11:28:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hmmm, I see now (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        elwior

        Looks like just over half of Tucson is in AZ-03 (Raul Grijalva's district).  And McSally ran it up in Cochise--she took over 60 percent of the vote there.  Though you'd think since most of the district's vote is in Pima Barber's margin would have been bigger.  Which leads me to think Romney won this district.

        Romney-Ryan: America's Rollback Team

        by Christian Dem in NC on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 11:48:10 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  barber underperformed Obama in Pima county (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tytalus, elwior

      http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/...

      Obama leads by 7 points, Barber by 4.

      However--- Note that a big chunk of Pima which is particularly D-leaning (South tucson, southwest) is represented by Grijalva, so I am not sure how significant that is.. IE if Barber's section of Pima is more R-leaning than the average.

      In cochise which is 100% in cd2 McSally underperformed Romney by 3 points as well...
      http://www.cochise.az.gov/...(2).pdf

      Sooo. I don't know for sure...

      "We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics" - F.D.R.

      by biscobosco on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 11:39:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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