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View Diary: Why the GOP lost big. (105 comments)

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  •  Because in Presidential politics (32+ / 0-)

    40% is the baseline for both political parties. No matter what, no matter who, regardless of economics, foreign policy, issues of the day, scandals, the nominees, the oppo research, every time each party starts at 40%.

    Guaranteed. 40%.

    How do we know? From the electoral disasters.
    1932. Hoover vs. Roosevelt. The Great Depression is on, Bank failures. Homelessness. Joblessness. Despair.
    ...and Hoover, the incumbent who was unlucky enough to preside over three years of it and got blamed for it, still got 39% & change.

    1964. Goldwater vs. Johnson. Inflation. Escalating war in Vietnam. The Civil Rights movement. A TRUE, Real, Conservative, practically the inventor of postwar conservatism after Wm. F. Buckley. THE GOP candidate who wanted to "lob one into the Kremlin" (ie. a nuclear weapon), who wanted to "saw off the Eastern Seaboard" and let the liberals drift out to sea (you know, reverse secession), a man who voted against the Civil Rights bills of 1963 & '64, wresting the nomination (by activating the grassroots) away from the Rockefeller moneymen of the GOP establishment who proceeded to sit on their hands in the general election.
    ....and Goldwater still got 39%.

    1972. McGovern vs. Nixon. Vietnam again. Inflation. Civil Rights and the "long, hot summers". Busing. Women's liberation. The opening stirrings of gay rights. A TRUE, Real, Liberal, the inheritor of liberal orthodoxy from McCarthy, Humphrey, Johnson, Kennedy (all of them). THE Democratic candidate who wanted to end the war NOW, grant amnesty to those who had dodged the draft, supported a woman's right to choose before the Roe v. Wade decision, relaxed drug laws, and restructuring American welfare to provide a minimum annual income floor (the $1000 grant) for every American citizen. A man who wrested the nomination (by activating the grassroots) away from the Muskie/Humphrey fatcats of the Democratic establishment who proceeded to sit on their hands in the general election.
    ....and McGovern still got 39% and change.

    So the absolute worst a national party can screw up still means you get 40%, always, every time. But after Romney, McCain and Bush (in raw vote totals) it sure looks like the Democrats have a higher ceiling and can get to the magic 50%+1 more easily than the GOP.

    Just sayin'.


    "God has given wine to gladden the hearts of people." Psalm 104:15

    by WineRev on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 10:57:19 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

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