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View Diary: Don't Overthink the 2012 Election: Why One Equation Seems to Explain (Almost) All Of It. (26 comments)

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  •  So I tried (4+ / 0-)

    among those few counties that have ACS estimates for both 2008 and 2011, and I got this:

    lm(formula = O2012 ~ O2008 + NHW2008 + NHW2011)

    Residuals:
           Min         1Q     Median         3Q        Max
    -0.0163682 -0.0058475 -0.0007363  0.0077624  0.0151617

    Coefficients:
                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
    (Intercept)  0.08369    0.03045   2.748   0.0143 *  
    O2008        0.94490    0.04142  22.815 1.24e-13 *
    NHW2008      0.05974    0.25273   0.236   0.8161    
    NHW2011     -0.16906    0.24976  -0.677   0.5082

    The fit was 0.99 (or 0.985), which is up quite a bit from the 0.96 you get with just Obama's percentages--but note that the NHW populations aren't statistically significant.  (And "O2008" should have three *'s next to it.)

    Also note: Miami-Dade had one of the smallest drops in NHW percentage on the list, while Osceola had the largest on the list.  But Broward County was second on the "NHW drop" list, and Obama doesn't seem to have over-performed there.  Basically, the shift is very orderly, but the demographic change isn't.

    My takeaway is that you can use the demographic changes to help explain the outlier counties, but you can't extend them into a coherent story about the whole set of counties.  And that's really my objection to the "demographics = destiny" stories--they seem too ad hoc, and I want a comprehensive picture.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Tue Nov 20, 2012 at 02:50:09 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  I actually see Broward as an over-performer (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Larsstephens

      of the aggregate trend line now, looking at my pictures--it was right on the regression line of that particular subset of counties I was looking at in Florida, which is what confused me.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Tue Nov 20, 2012 at 03:01:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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