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View Diary: Do states have 'house effects' when it comes to polling? (68 comments)

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  •  I'd agree with some of this except... (7+ / 0-)

    two things.

    1. I think the state has libertarian roots that have been tossed rightward with the advent of cheap talk radio in the cow counties. Hey, if you live in White Pine or Humboldt County, all  you have to listen to is Rush on the local AM outlet. Rural Nevadans didn't used to be a bunch of right wing lunatics and I don't think they are. The media they get leans hard right and pushes some of the libertarian buttons.

    2. Washoe County is NOT the rest of non-Clark County Nevada.  It's a competitive area for Democrats with the right message, even though there are some real right wing  lunatics there. Washoe is approx 15-20% of the vote in Nevada and a decent plurality combined with a huge turnout in Clark County wins.

    •  Washoe County (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Shockwave, fgentile, MichaelNY


      You make a good point.  Washoe went for Obama 51-47.  Not far off the national average.  However, in the senate race, Washoe went 50-40 for Heller.

      I wonder how much of election results/polling in NV are the result of "identity politics?" In the presidential polling a case of, "how do I think my neighbors would answer this poll," but then voting the way that you think will really matter.  And in the senate race a case of, "I'm not voting for another one of those LV types."

      I think it would be a fascinating study for some poli-sci department (preferably at UNR, where they do real science ;)).

      •  Yeah (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        madhaus, MichaelNY

        Looking at identity polls would be a good way to do it.

        Also, Washoe County is definitely not the "rest of Nevada" also known as the Cow Counties. Washoe County is a bit of a bellwether actually, it's picked the winning candidates in pretty much every major election since 1998.

        Washoe County has urban Reno but Reno is less Democratic than Las Vegas but Democratic enough to usually swing the county for Democrats which means Democrats can win statewide.

        I also predicted for the Senate race that Berkley would have to win Clark County by 10 because Titus lost statewide by 4 but won Clark County by 6 and she faced a Republican from outside Las Vegas. Those candidates do surprisingly well actually, mostly because they prevent Democrats from winning Washoe County.

        For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

        by Alibguy on Sun Dec 23, 2012 at 11:19:24 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Heller is from Reno (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        madhaus, MichaelNY

            so he may have overperformed there because of a favorite son effect. He was the Representative for the area before his appointment to the U.S. Senate.

        Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

        by Zack from the SFV on Mon Dec 24, 2012 at 12:55:03 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I agree. (0+ / 0-)

      AM radio still rules when one is travelling through the Great Basin. It's the only radio that a person can get for hundred of miles, sometimes. I've spent hours yelling at my radio, too.
      That happens whenever I leave my road CD's back home by accident.

      AM is nothing but Rush and company, 24/7/360 in some areas. It has to have an accumulative effect after 20 years of listening to nothing but this with no alternatives.

      Right many are called, and damn few are chosen.

      by Idaho07 on Sun Dec 23, 2012 at 04:43:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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