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View Diary: Do states have 'house effects' when it comes to polling? (68 comments)

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  •  Yeah (2+ / 0-)
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    madhaus, MichaelNY

    Looking at identity polls would be a good way to do it.

    Also, Washoe County is definitely not the "rest of Nevada" also known as the Cow Counties. Washoe County is a bit of a bellwether actually, it's picked the winning candidates in pretty much every major election since 1998.

    Washoe County has urban Reno but Reno is less Democratic than Las Vegas but Democratic enough to usually swing the county for Democrats which means Democrats can win statewide.

    I also predicted for the Senate race that Berkley would have to win Clark County by 10 because Titus lost statewide by 4 but won Clark County by 6 and she faced a Republican from outside Las Vegas. Those candidates do surprisingly well actually, mostly because they prevent Democrats from winning Washoe County.

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

    by Alibguy on Sun Dec 23, 2012 at 11:19:24 PM PST

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