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View Diary: Saxby Chambliss says Grover Norquist is not the boss of him (82 comments)

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  •  I'm thinking this is a political move (1+ / 0-)
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    whaddaya

    It's pretty clear that Republicans are going to give some on revenue -- The President may not get everything he's seeking, but I can see them agreeing to closing deductions for households $250,000 and up, and rate increases on "millionaires an billionaires" -- like $1 million and up.  

    Then, of course, pressure shifts to the President to agree to spending cuts that he agreed to in 2011 and that he campaigned on (the "balanced approach" to deficit reduction).  

    I suspect that the Republicans are thinking that if they very publicly compromise on revenue, and the President doesn't agree to significant spending cuts, and a deal isn't reached, the public blames the President for not compromising when the Republicans very publicly "compromised."

    Of course, this is just a guess on my part.  But I can possibly see that kind of thinking on their part.  

    •  If they very publicly compromise on revenue (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      whaddaya

      they're going to get teabagged.  So in my mind, even if that's their master plan, it's still going to benefit Team Blue.

    •  Ezra Klein speculated that one deal (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      nextstep

      that might happen:

      GOP gives in, and raises tax rates for the top 2%. That would bring in about 80 billion for the next year. Dems would then have to match about 80 billion in spending cuts, and together that would be considered a down payment on deficit reduction. The sequester would be halted or delayed until next year, when tax reform and entitlement reform would be debated.

      That seems like a good deal for Dems, unless there is some trigger/new sequester added that would cut Medicare or Social Security if a deal doesnt get done by next year.

      •  I can't imagine Republicans will agree to (0+ / 0-)

        1 to 1, revenue to spending cuts.  In 2011, it was $800 billion in revenue out of a total of $4 trillion in spending cuts.  Supposedly what killed the deal is that the President then upped it to $1.2 trillion over 10 years.  

        I cannot imagine the Republicans agreeing to $800 billion in revenue over ten years for a total deficit reduction package of $1.6 trillion over 10 years. Especially when you throw raising of the debt ceiling (due around the end of the year or early 2013) into the mix.  

        The President talked in public and in private about a "grand bargain" of about $4 trillion in total deficit reduction.  Republicans are not going to give in completely on their side -- give the President everything he was seeking in revenue during the campaign -- without holding him to the total $4 trillion in deficit reduction that he also campaigned on.  He specifically said $2.50 in spending cuts for every dollar of revenue. There's no way the Republicans would give him the revenue without a solid $2.50 in spending cuts for each dollar of revenue.  

        •  Yeah, I'm skeptical about that too (0+ / 0-)

          Here is the link to what Ezra says, and note it is speculation:

          Here’s how it could work: The top-income tax cuts expire, as Obama wants. Those cuts only raise about $80 billion in 2013, so they’re a “down payment” on reform. And their cost is that the Democrats identify roughly $80 billion in spending cuts that can be passed into law now — so Republicans also get a “down payment” on the bigger deal. And all this happens in the context of a framework for a larger deal, which includes the promise of tax reform in 2013.
          I could see them agreeing to the 1:1 deal for one year, as outlined here, if they could get better terms for next year, in the the new sequester or trigger or whatever you want to call it.

          I dont think there is going to be any deduction cap or repeal of tax breaks in a lame duck fiscal cliff deal. It's too complicated and there are lobbyists for every tax break who will fight for them. It wont happen outside of a comprehensive tax reform deal.

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