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View Diary: Comparing state-by-state presidential performance: 2012 vs. 2008 (144 comments)

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  •  Pennsylvania (3+ / 0-)
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    Odysseus, WisJohn, askew

    I've wondered if Pennsylvania's underperformance could be partly explained by Sandy.  Pennsylvania has been D+2, +.5, +1.8, +2.5, +1.6, +.8 so perhaps it's performance this election perhaps isn't that significant, but it still nags at me.  

    In contrast to a state like New Jersey where essentially the whole state was impacted, in Pennsylvania the Southeastern Democratic base of the state was, while obviously much less severely than NJ, impacted more than the Republican areas of the state.  Turnout was down, as of now, 6.09%.  The worst of any of Wasserman's 12 supposed swing states, and 9th worst of any state[some of which to one degree or another are still counting[I could see CA still passing PA] and 2 of which are NY/NJ].  Only 3 other swing states showed decreases in turnout on an absolute basis.  NH at -0.1% was marginal.  MI at -5.68% was the only state in the Union to lose population between 2000 and 2010 and this is almost certainly post 2008 population loss and was a marginal swing state at best.  OH at -5.37% is still counting and may still halve that turnout drop when all is said and done.  It seems the only way to find clear analogs to Pennsylvania is to consider it a non-swing state which seems a catch-22.

    Unfortunately I am too lazy to try to determine this more rigorously. Even trying to compare turnout in southeastern counties versus counties in the rest of the state seems insufficient as it is those SE counties that have gained population in the last 10 years while most of the rest of the state has lost population.  So even roughly even roughly even turnout changes might be evidence of Sandy linked suppression of the vote.

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