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View Diary: Comparing state-by-state presidential performance: 2012 vs. 2008 (144 comments)

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  •  Weren't HI, CT, NJ, DE, and OR swing states until (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    recently?

    California too.

    Then again, MO, TN, and WV were also swing states...

    •  Hawaii, since statehood in '59, only voted R twice (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SquirmyRooter, annieli

      in Presidential elections. [In the R landslide years of '72 & '84.] Hawaii has NEVER sent an R Senator or Representative to Congress. In fact, current Sen. Daniel Inouye--the Senate's most senior member--has represented Hawaii in DC since our Territorial days.

      Until the past decade or so, Hawaii's local GOP could more or less meet in a phone booth. If the local Dems weren't such an old fashioned, dysfunctional, sometimes corrupt machine-style party, they would have never surrendered their complete dominance over local politics.

      Hawaii has NEVER been a 'swing state,' locally or nationally. And it never will be.

      Ho'oponopono. To make things right; restore harmony; heal.

      by earicicle on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 09:32:07 PM PST

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      •  Incumbent GOP presidents did fairly well there. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, AussieforObama2ndterm

        In 1972 Nixon actually exceeded his national landslide margin in Hawaii.   In 1976, Ford almost carried Hawaii.  In 1984, Reagan defeated Mondale there 55-44--that fell short of his national 59-41 landsllde but not by that much.  In 1992, Clinton did easily defeat Bush there, but did not get an actual majority (48.6-37.1) and I am inclined to believe that whatver may have been the case in some other states, Perot hurt Bush more than Clinton in Hawaii.
        (Remember that Orson Swindle, a major Perot supporter in 1992, later ran as a Republican against Neil Abercrombie, and held him to 50 percent of the vote.)  Even in 2004, Kerry's 53.7-45.5 victory, though solid, was still short of a landslide--it was a little worse than Kerry did in Connectituct, for example.

        In elections where there was no GOP incumbent in the White House, Hawaii did tend to go solidly Democratic (after 1960).  But I think it's misleading to say that it was never a swing state.  It would be more correct to day that it had a Democratic inclination which was sometimes partly offset--and sometimes aided--by an inclination to support the incumbent president.  (I am only speaking historically; today it is a Democratic state, period, at least in national elections--and I expect it to stay that way.  But how can anyone say it wasn't a swing state in 1976?)

        •  In fact in 2004 the GOP made a real effort to win (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Hawaii and I think Dick Cheney even visited to shore up the Bush campaign's chances (LOL what an incentive to vote Republican after having a visit from the evil warlord himself). Gore went there to campaign for Kerry. So it wasn't surprising that the win for Kerry was so narrow.

          That's not to take away from your excellent analysis, which I wholeheartedly agree with

          •  LOL. (0+ / 0-)

            Yes: Visiting Hawaii means a party or candidate was making a SERIOUS POLITICAL PLAY for that state. Strategery!!! What other reason would anyone want to visit Hawaii? Such a hardship to travel all that way to such an unappealing destination!  

            Republican 'values' have as much appeal in Hawaii as full-length down coats. It's hilarious to find this level of ignorance in 'analysis' of Hawaii's electoral history. I notice exactly ZERO experienced Kossacks entering the thread with hastily Googled stats from Wikipedia to counter what a politically engaged native of Hawaii has said.

            Ho'oponopono. To make things right; restore harmony; heal.

            by earicicle on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 12:35:18 PM PST

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        •  Oh, good Lord... (0+ / 0-)

          Did you grow up there? Do you know a damn thing about the culture? Were you politically active from childhood? Did you vote in neighborhood board races, city council races, state legislature races, etc.?

          Or are you just really good with Google?

          Give me a fucking break. Hawaii is NOT a swing state. I know whereof I speak, UID #637691. One handy rule for dKos: Don't lecture Kossacks, especially in their personal areas of expertise.

          Welcome!

          Ho'oponopono. To make things right; restore harmony; heal.

          by earicicle on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 12:28:24 PM PST

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      •  Hawaii sent a Republican Representative to DC (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        AussieforObama2ndterm

        very recently. His name is Charles Djou. How soon you forget!

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 11:50:50 PM PST

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        •  Give me a break. (0+ / 0-)

          It was a complete fluke--two Dems cannibalized each other as they competed in a special election to fill out the remainder of Neil Abercrombie's term.

          Love all this analysis from peeps who've never set foot in the isles. But can use Wikipedia! Do they know what 'wiki' means, and what language it comes from?

          Ho'oponopono. To make things right; restore harmony; heal.

          by earicicle on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 12:20:44 PM PST

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      •  Actually Hawaii has sent Republicans to Congress (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bumiputera

        in both the Senate and House

        Senator Hiram Fong was a Republican who served alongside Inouye for twelve years from 1964 to 1976 before being defeated

        Patricia Saiki served as a Republican congresswoman for four years before running for the Senate and losing to Daniel Akaka in a special election. And Charles Djou served briefly in the US House from 2010-2011

        •  Djou was a fluke (see above). (0+ / 0-)

          Fong & Saiki--I did forget about them when commenting late last night. Of course, I never think about them as Rs in the modern sense. Sen Fong was a leading advocate in the civil rights movement, and Pat Saiki was a no-nonsense woman who represented Hawaii well. Rs were an extreme minority party in Fong's & Saiki's days, and individual R leaders were important as bulwarks against the utter dominance of the corrupt D machine.

          I may have even voted for Pat Saiki once, now that I think about it. She was quite a tough woman!

          Ho'oponopono. To make things right; restore harmony; heal.

          by earicicle on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 12:45:07 PM PST

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          •  Glad to see you concede that you were wrong (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera
            Fong & Saiki--I did forget about them when commenting late last night.
            So since you admit you were wrong, isn't it high time for you to stop with your ad hominem replies?

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 09:28:50 PM PST

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