Skip to main content

View Diary: Comparing state-by-state presidential performance: 2012 vs. 2008 (144 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Incumbent GOP presidents did fairly well there. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, AussieforObama2ndterm

    In 1972 Nixon actually exceeded his national landslide margin in Hawaii.   In 1976, Ford almost carried Hawaii.  In 1984, Reagan defeated Mondale there 55-44--that fell short of his national 59-41 landsllde but not by that much.  In 1992, Clinton did easily defeat Bush there, but did not get an actual majority (48.6-37.1) and I am inclined to believe that whatver may have been the case in some other states, Perot hurt Bush more than Clinton in Hawaii.
    (Remember that Orson Swindle, a major Perot supporter in 1992, later ran as a Republican against Neil Abercrombie, and held him to 50 percent of the vote.)  Even in 2004, Kerry's 53.7-45.5 victory, though solid, was still short of a landslide--it was a little worse than Kerry did in Connectituct, for example.

    In elections where there was no GOP incumbent in the White House, Hawaii did tend to go solidly Democratic (after 1960).  But I think it's misleading to say that it was never a swing state.  It would be more correct to day that it had a Democratic inclination which was sometimes partly offset--and sometimes aided--by an inclination to support the incumbent president.  (I am only speaking historically; today it is a Democratic state, period, at least in national elections--and I expect it to stay that way.  But how can anyone say it wasn't a swing state in 1976?)

    •  In fact in 2004 the GOP made a real effort to win (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Hawaii and I think Dick Cheney even visited to shore up the Bush campaign's chances (LOL what an incentive to vote Republican after having a visit from the evil warlord himself). Gore went there to campaign for Kerry. So it wasn't surprising that the win for Kerry was so narrow.

      That's not to take away from your excellent analysis, which I wholeheartedly agree with

      •  LOL. (0+ / 0-)

        Yes: Visiting Hawaii means a party or candidate was making a SERIOUS POLITICAL PLAY for that state. Strategery!!! What other reason would anyone want to visit Hawaii? Such a hardship to travel all that way to such an unappealing destination!  

        Republican 'values' have as much appeal in Hawaii as full-length down coats. It's hilarious to find this level of ignorance in 'analysis' of Hawaii's electoral history. I notice exactly ZERO experienced Kossacks entering the thread with hastily Googled stats from Wikipedia to counter what a politically engaged native of Hawaii has said.

        Ho'oponopono. To make things right; restore harmony; heal.

        by earicicle on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 12:35:18 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Oh, good Lord... (0+ / 0-)

      Did you grow up there? Do you know a damn thing about the culture? Were you politically active from childhood? Did you vote in neighborhood board races, city council races, state legislature races, etc.?

      Or are you just really good with Google?

      Give me a fucking break. Hawaii is NOT a swing state. I know whereof I speak, UID #637691. One handy rule for dKos: Don't lecture Kossacks, especially in their personal areas of expertise.

      Welcome!

      Ho'oponopono. To make things right; restore harmony; heal.

      by earicicle on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 12:28:24 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  No one says it's a swing state today. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        But that it came close to going for Ford in 1976 is simply a fact.  

        •  So proud that you have learned how to look up (0+ / 1-)
          Recommended by:
          Hidden by:
          bumiputera

          numbers on the Internet! They completely explain everything you need to know. Congrats.

          I await your future triumphs in trollery, David T. Your 7 comment history bodes well!

          Ho'oponopono. To make things right; restore harmony; heal.

          by earicicle on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 08:02:35 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Your ridiculing of someone for being out of state (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera

            is over-the-top and not appreciated in elections analysis threads. Merely being somewhere does not prove knowledge, and merely not being somewhere does not prove ignorance.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 09:25:30 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site