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View Diary: Saying "Fiscal Cliff" Is Taking Sides (21 comments)

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  •  After Jan 1 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    the "facts on the ground" will be different precisely BECAUSE people will see the extra money coming out of their paychecks.

    So if Republicans try to block putting their taxes back where they were, the pressure from the public will be intense.  And the public will NOT want taxes cut on people making over $250K.

    Sometimes you need the theater before people can get it.

    Seeing The Forest -- Who is our economy FOR, anyway? Twitter: @dcjohnson

    by davej on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 11:13:14 AM PST

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    •  And Democrats will have to agree to (0+ / 0-)

      spending cuts in the range of $2.50 for every dollar of revenue increases -- which is exactly the "balanced approach" that the President has been pushing since the debt ceiling negotiations in 2011, and what he campaigned on.  

      My point is that the deal is going to be roughly the same either before or after January 1.  If Democrats agree to the President's "balanced" approach, and because the Tax Policy Center study I linked to gives everybody cover for starting the higher RATES at $1 million, I think you can get the deal before December 31.  But you won't get a deal without those $2.50 in spending cuts (that the President campaigned on) to go with the revenue increases, either before or after January 1.  That's not going to change.  

      •  Not sure why (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Armando, trumpeter

        would Dems "have to" agree to anything?

        Seeing The Forest -- Who is our economy FOR, anyway? Twitter: @dcjohnson

        by davej on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 12:36:43 PM PST

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        •  They only have to if they want a deal. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          nextstep, VClib

          They can certainly choose no deal and have all of the tax increases and spending cuts go into effect on January 1.  

          I think that it's becoming clear that the Republicans are going to compromise and agree to revenue increases in order to get the spending cuts they also want.  They have no incentive whatsoever to agree to the tax increases on the wealthy without the corresponding spending cuts the President campaigned on.  

          I don't think there's a snowball's chance in hell that the Republicans will agree, either before or after January 1, to just revenue increases.  

          So both sides have a choice:  (1) make a deal (i.e., give up something significant that we want, in order to get something significant that we want), or (2) all of the tax increases and spending cuts.  That choice isn't going to change after January 1.  Neither side is going to get a deal without compromising -- Republicans compromise on revenue, Democrats compromise on spending cuts.  Each side has two options:  (1) compromise or (2) the so-called "fiscal cliff."  Those two options don't change on January 1.

        •  dave, I don't think in the short term the Dems (0+ / 0-)

          will agree to anything, and neither will the Republicans, and we will go off the fiscal ramp on Jan 1. I don't think there will be a deal until there is a "grand bargain" and I think that will take six months after the new Congress is sworn in. Many here think the GOP will be under some enormous pressure to make a deal because rates on everyone will go up on January 1st. The next elections are two years away and I don't think the GOP won't be under any pressure at all to make a deal during the lame duck. I do think everyone will feel the pressure to do something before the August summer break in 2013.

          "let's talk about that"

          by VClib on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 05:25:52 PM PST

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