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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 11/28 (588 comments)

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  •  And the list for House Democrats (4+ / 0-)

    using the same metric.  Good news is, the list is a lot shorter.

    Expect to be competitive
    NC-07: McIntyre
    GA-12: Barrow
    WV-03: Rahall
    FL-18: Murphy
    UT-04: Matheson

    Might be competitive
    FL-26: Garcia
    AZ-02: Barber
    CA-36: Ruiz
    NY-21: Owens
    TX-23: Gallego

    Probably not competitive, but keep an eye on
    NY-18: Maloney
    CA-07: Bera
    AZ-01: Kirkpatrick
    IL-10: Schneider
    NH-01: Shea-Porter
    OR-05: Schrader
    CA-52: Peters
    NY-01: Bishop

    •  AZ-09 ? (4+ / 0-)

      I would put Sinema in Expect to be or Might be. Prolly between.

      •  Might be (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I wasn't really thinking of additions in my response.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:26:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Hmm (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

        I definitely have AZ-09 as the safest of the three non-VRA Dem seats in Arizona.  It's the only one that Obama won in 2008, and by a decent 4 point margin.  Politico has Sinema winning by 3%, but they're also missing 200K votes that have been counted since statewide, most of which have favored Dems.  So I think Sinema actually won by more, and given the way her particular area of Phoenix is trending, I think she will be pretty safe in the future.  I suppose I should have put it in the third category though, along with Kirkpatrick in AZ-01.

    •  Here (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, MichaelNY

      I think that NY-21 should be moved to expected competitive and that NH-01 should be might be competitive.

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

      by wwmiv on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:22:24 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Fair enough (4+ / 0-)

        My list might be a tad optimistic, especially in relation to the GOP list before.  I just think Owens is really shaping up to be a difficult incumbent to beat considering that region of upstate NY is trending towards us, and that he has been heavily targeted two elections in a row already but has prevailed.  As for Shea-Porter, I think she proved the skeptics wrong this year, and will be tough to unseat again except in a strong GOP year.

    •  why wouldn't the five swing districts (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      with relatively new Democrats that you called "might be competitive" not be competitive?

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:35:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  more defense (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, MichaelNY, bumiputera

      AZ9: should keep trending blue, but Dem turnout should be down in 2014 and I would not expect Sinema to get a free pass.

      CA26: Strickland kept this fairly close, and a well-funded moderate might have a chance in a midterm.

      CT5: Less vulnerable to midterm dropoff, but the GOP will likely contest this given how close this was.

      MA6: If Tierney stays, the GOP should take another crack at him. If he retires, it's an open seat that they could potentially win.

      NH2: Kuster only won by about 5.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:35:57 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Fair points (6+ / 0-)

        With light-blue seats like CA-26 and CT-05, I tend to assume the closest race the Democrats are likely to have is when they first win it.  Compare to seats like CT-04 (Himes), IA-01 (Braley), KY-03 (Yarmuth), MN-01 (Walz), and other light blue seats that the Democrats lock down pretty easily after their first competitive elections.  The past decade of elections has led me to believe that Republicans are only going to have more and more trouble competing in blue districts down the road (and the same goes for us in red districts).

        As for Tierney, the fact that they couldn't beat him this year with a top-tier, well-funded candidate makes me think they can't get him next time.  I don't think he will continue to be as unpopular unless new things develop over the next two years with his in-laws.  I also think it extremely likely he retires.

        NH-02: That's fair.  But she only won by 5 beating basically the best candidate the GOP has for this seat.

      •  CA-26 might have close races, but should be a hold (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacman701, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        About the only moderate that Republicans have around here is Jeff Gorell, but he only got 53% against a non-funded Democratic candidate who had never run for office before and actually lost Oxnard by more than Strickland did.

        26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:00:52 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  MA-06 is not a seat the GOP (5+ / 0-)

        would have a chance with if it were open. There are plenty of strong Democrats who could run if it were, including Katherine Clark. The second problem is that Essex county has trended more Democratic over the last decade, as opposed to some of the southern tier of Boston suburbs that have gotten more Republican, and a Republican trend in parts of Central Massachusetts that were already historically Republican and were Democrats were probably temporarily over-extended in the 1990s. This is my understanding of it at least.

        Brown only won Essex, which comprises all of this district, 50-49 against Elizabeth Warren. Simply put, if Scott Brown could only barely win a district, and Richard Tisei couldn't beat John Tierney despite the immediacy of his family problems, the GOP won't have any shot in an open seat. That said, Tierney could have an easier time getting reelected in 2014. For one, he's never been implicated in the scandal, and two, it broke all the back in the 2010 campaign, when, thankfully, Tierney had a completely unacceptable tea party Republican as his opponent. Without real evidence of Tierney's wrong-doing, such a scandal just won't last forever and it can't keep being reused when a majority of voters probably won't continue to hold it against him or view it as relevant.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 04:14:26 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Strickland was a long-time, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bumiputera

        well known politico in the district though, and for all his conservatism and faults, he was acknowledged by California posters here as a good campaigner and politician who not only raised a ton of money, but had a solid base in the district, whereas Brownley came from the Northern LA county suburbs, and had to work hard to establish herself in a district she didn't have a political base in. Not to mention unlike some other CA districts, this district is wealthy and mostly white, and over all, Democrats don't have significant turnout issues here, and parts of it, like Ventura, are slowly getting more Democratic. Republicans could probably keep it close if they tried, but winning it seems out of reach at this point.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 04:19:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  also why in the world (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      would NY-18, a swingy, wealthy district, not be competitive?
      Or CA-7, with a freshman in an ancestrally Republican area? Almost all of these will be competitive barring a recruiting fail.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:36:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  CA-07 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

        Other than Roger Niello or Peter Tateishi, what GOP bench is there?

        22, D, CA-12 (old CA-08).

        by kurykh on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:41:38 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's two off the bat (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I'm sure a county supervisor could run as well.  The district isn't blue enough to be anything but competitive in 2014.

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:09:41 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  CA7 (6+ / 0-)

        That seat is probably gone until the next redistricting. Sac's older/closer suburbs are rapidly trending blue as they fill up with nonwhites. Guys like Bera and assemblyman Richard Pan really are the new face of the district. I think Lungren could keep it competitive if he's up for a rematch, but Bera would be a strong favorite against anyone else.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:44:06 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Ancestrally GOP doesn't count for much anymore (6+ / 0-)

        A lot of these ancestrally GOP areas (but now light blue) went easily for Democrats this year, and some even resisted the GOP wave of 2010 (Himes, Perlmutter, McNerney, Chris Murphy, Owens, Keating, etc.)

        Why did Maloney beat Hayworth by 4 points in NY-18?  Hayworth seemed a good fit for the district...socially moderate, fiscally conservative, scandal-free...all I can point to is that Obama won it by 5 points against McCain and he probably hit that kind of number again this year.  Does the GOP bench in this area include many Republicans who are stronger than Hayworth was as an incumbent?

        As for CA-07, I have a theory that, at least in the near future, Republicans in California will continue do worse and worse in each election.  This I expect to continue for awhile more.  Almost every part of the state is undeniably trending Dem and I think they will continue to lose House seats, not gain them back, unless we face another GOP wave election.  If a CA GOP institution like Lungren couldn't hold off Bera, would another Republican really have such a good chance?

        •  It can be a contributing factor to LaTourette's (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje, jncca, LordMike, MichaelNY

          Syndrome, particularly in states where the GOP is still fairly healthy. That said, it probably is much more of a positive for a Republican incumbent or in an open seat than a negative for a Democratic incumbent.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

          by fearlessfred14 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:12:16 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  NY 18: Should Be Interesting (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, MichaelNY

          I know the Democratic cities of Beacon and Poughkeepsie sometimes have turnout issues. That is why they both have Republican Mayors despite the fact that over 40% of the population of those cities are registered Democrats (and most independents skew heavily Dem). Newburgh and
          Middletown aren't as bad though.

          NY is always weird because State Assemblyman and Senators don't make the best candidates. Besides Greg Ball (who is a jerk), I don't think any Republican state officials would run. I am unsure which local Republican elected officials or random business people are interested. I assume they will go for somebody in Putnam County, because that is the most Republican part of the district.

          M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

          by slacks on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:21:29 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Hayworth did make some dickish comments (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          about hurricane Irene relief.

        •  I really hope this is the case (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Darrell Issa achieved an unimpressive margin for his national stature and the weak ass opponent we fielded. I cannot say this enough, but we need to field a good candidate for this district, which R+5 currently (Don't think 2012 has been added up yet), which isn't as red as Lungren's district use to be.  I mean hell, the old CA-03 was R+6 as recent as 2010.  If both the SD democratic party and OC democratic party don't make this race a top priority, well, I think my head may explode.

          Side Note: My father and I were recently talking about the election and the results in our congressional district.  He said there was no way Issa should have won, considering the massive shift the the left his new district took compared to his old one, and the combination of how large a bomb thrower he is.  He mentioned how he should just do it, and started asking me some questions about the process to declare one's self a candidate.  Now, my father is an attorney in the OC portion of the district, and when it comes to governance, his highest position was member of our Homeowner's association, so he would be a somedude.

          It's an interesting thought, but if the democratic party fails to recruit someone for CA-49, I'd tell my father he should go for it.  

          Coolest thing for me would likely be managing a campaign for congress.  Having dealt with an incompetent manager in the past, I pretty much know the do's and do not's.

          Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college)

          by Daman09 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:06:57 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  the demographic trends in CA (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        mean that every election cycle will have a more favorable electorate than the last. especially given that there will be hotly contested statewide races in 2014, and election day registration. it's not a state that's going to swing the same way as a state with static demographics and a large aging white moderate electorate. dems picked up seats in 2010 in CA, which was a GOP wave year elsewhere, for the same reason.

    •  Too optomistic (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY

      on Maloney and Shea-Porter.

    •  Who might take on Bishop? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Is Randy Altschuler going to grace us with his presence yet again?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 03:35:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ruiz won by more (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      Than Scott Peters. Ami Bera and Julia Brownley though. (Who saw that coming?)

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 04:05:44 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think both the NH seats (0+ / 0-)

      might be competitive, depending on what the political climate is like, and Shea Porter should be in the "might be competitive" category. Of all the Democrats listed, the one who figures to be the most endangered is McIntyre. As of this time, I'd give him no more than a 40% chance at reelection, assuming he chooses not to retire, in which case, the seat is lost, period. But 2 years is a long time in politics, so we shall see.

      You also left out Tierney (D-Mass). He should be in the most competitive category.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:36:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think Tierney will be any more endangered (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        than Cicilline in RI-01.  Voters had a full two years to hear about their faults, millions were spent to hammer them, the GOP put up their best possible candidates, and still the Democrats won.  Don't see Tierney being in serious trouble unless even more bad news comes out over the next two years.  I think it more likely that his in-laws' problems slowly fades away in importance relative to this past election.  Just don't see Massachusetts Republicans getting in here if they couldn't this year.

        Plus I think it likely Tierney retires given how he seemed to not even care about his re-election at the end, at which point this goes to safe Dem again.

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