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View Diary: With strategists this delusional, it's no wonder Romney lost (236 comments)

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  •  O.M.G. (2+ / 0-)
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    raincrow, Ahianne

    Like really?  I mean, really?  Is this an April Fools Day joke peice come late or something?  Or an Onion peice?  I mean, this guy is totally delusional.  Maybe it's a good thing.  Maybe it's a sign that Republicans won't pay attention to their problems and will continue to nominate terrible candidates who will lose to Democrats.  As a Dem, I should like that.  But I mean, having this sort of theme in the media just bugs me.

    Also, the exit polls are not complete.  They don't include every state so as far as I'm concerned, they're of little value.  Yeah, whites will look like they swung Republican if you fail to include young whites who voted in Vermont, Hawaii, the District of Columbia, California, and other similar states.  Granted, if you were to conduct a poll of those states, you'd find that Obama was really doing much better among old, white, straight, men than anyplace else!  Why, Obama got something like 15%-20% of the Republican vote in California!  He didn't get that ANYWHERE else, even in other blue states.  Those odd political statistics don't equal the election but if you discount those voters in your exit polls, yeah, the exit polls might swing a little bit.  

    Obama was down about 1%-2% on average from his 2008 numbers.  So for example, in 2008, he received 53% of the vote in Virginia and 93% of the vote in the District of Columbia.  In 2012, he received 51% in Virginia and 91% in the District of Columbia.  I think he won 52% in Colorado in 2012 and he had 54% in 2008.  I'd have to double check but I think that was also true in Iowa and New Hampshire.  In the latter two states, those states were lily white.  In the District of Columbia, Obama would never have lost but he is the first and only Presidential candidate to win 90% of the vote or more there and if young whites had really swung that heavily to Romney, that would have shown up.  Ditto for California where as of right now (and we're still counting ballots so it's subject to change), Obama has 60.1% of the vote.  He had 61% in 2008.  This is a historic acheivement of course and I'm proud of him for it.  

    The point is......without complete nationwide exit polls, you're not accurately measuring how the vote swung.  And to make wild guesses (outside some small groups where you had a large sample.....like military voters in Virginia who swung heavily to Obama) and call it real political analysis is just plain foolish.  

    Check out my new blog: http://socalliberal.wordpress.com/

    by SoCalLiberal on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 02:44:00 PM PST

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