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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 11/29 (330 comments)

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  •  Rep. Mike McIntyre has won in NC-07 (12+ / 0-)
    RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — Democratic U.S. Rep. Mike McIntyre reclaimed his longtime southeastern North Carolina congressional seat on Wednesday night, earning a razor-thin victory over his Republican challenger after a machine recount produced hardly any change in the margin.

    Republican rival David Rouzer conceded defeat after the recount in the 12th and final county in the 7th Congressional District showed McIntyre keeping a 654-vote lead over Rouzer. McIntyre had a 655-vote lead out of more than 336,000 votes cast before Rouzer requested the recount that began Monday.

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    •  Well, that's a wrap on house races (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY

      expect for the LA runoff, but that's two reupublicans.

      •  Flips? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        How many seats did the Dems flip, and how many did the Republicans flip?

        •  Not as clear-cut this time around (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, JBraden, Zack from the SFV

          because of redistricting. Dems picked up a net 8 seats, but hat exactly qualifies as a flip in each direction is a bit harder to judge.

        •  The net change is +8 Dem (10+ / 0-)

          but I assume you want to know the full results.  This is what I have...first off, we lost eight due to reapportionment between states, in each case a Dem seat was vaporized in the following: MA (Olver), MI (Clarke), MO (Carnahan), NJ (Rothman), NY (Hinchey), OH (Kucinich), OH (Sutton, drawn in with Renacci) and PA (Altmire).  However, we also gained five due to reapportionment between states creating a new seat for us in the following: AZ (Sinema), NV (Horsford), FL (Grayson), TX (Veasey), and WA (Heck).  So we're down 3 already.

          The GOP equivalently gained 3 due to this reapportionment churn.  They lost four seats, one each vaporized in the following: LA (Landry), IL (Manzullo), NY (Turner), and IA (Latham, who moved to challenge Boswell).  And they gained a total of seven: SC (Rice), GA (Collins), FL (DeSantis), UT (Stewart), and three in TX (Stockman, Williams, and the one that Farenthold shifted in to).

          So now on to the general elections:

          Dem gains: 22 total
          AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick takes Gosar's old seat)
          CA-07 (Bera beats Lungren)
          CA-26 (Brownley takes Gallegly's open seat)
          CA-36 (Ruiz beats Bono Mack)
          CA-41 (Takano takes a reconfigured version of Dreier's seat)
          CA-52 (Peters beats Bilbray)
          FL-26 (Garcia beats Rivera)
          FL-18 (Murphy beats West)
          FL-22 (Frankel, taking West's old seat)
          IL-08 (Duckworth beats Walsh)
          IL-10 (Schneider beats Dold)
          IL-11 (Foster beats Biggert)
          IL-17 (Bustos beats Schilling)
          MD-06 (Delaney beats Bartlett)
          MN-08 (Nolan beats Cravaack)
          NH-01 (Shea-Porter beats Guinta)
          NH-02 (Kuster beats Bass)
          NY-18 (Maloney beats Hayworth)
          NY-24 (Maffei beats Buerkle)
          OH-03 (Beatty, taking a vote-sunk version of Austria's seat)
          TX-23 (Gallego beats Canseco)
          TX-34 (Vela, takes Farenthold's old district)

          GOP gains: 11 total
          AR-04 (Cotton takes Ross' open seat)
          CA-21 (Valadao takes Costa's old seat)
          IA-03 (Latham beats Boswell)
          IN-02 (Walorski takes Donnelly's open seat)
          KY-06 (Barr beats Chandler)
          NC-08 (Hudson beats Kissell)
          NC-11 (Meadows takes Shuler's open seat)
          NC-13 (Holding takes Miller's open seat)
          OK-02 (Mullin takes Boren's open seat)
          PA-12 (Rothfus beats Critz)
          NY-27 (Collins beats Hochul)

          So 22 minus 11 minus 3 gives us +8 Dem.  You can view certain seats differently if you want.  For instance, I looked at the new IA-03 as being Latham's seat disappearing, then him shifting in to fight Boswell and beating him.  But you can see this instead as Boswell seeing his seat vaporized instead.  It doesn't change the math.  Same goes for Ohio, you can see it instead as Austra's seat vaporized, and Beatty "getting" Sutton's seat.  In Texas, you can see it as Dems getting a new seat in South Texas, and Farenthold simply holding his old seat.  Florida is also interesting, in that West moved into Rooney's seat, Rooney moved into some new blob carved somewhat out of Posey's seat, Posey shifted north and Mica shifted south squeezing Sandy Adams out of her seat, considering the new Dem vote sink in Orlando.  So you could see it as Grayson taking Adams' open seat (a pickup), and instead see the GOP drawing both new seats for themselves, DeSantis and the one that Rooney scooted in to.  The musical chairs gets confusing, but in the end, the FL delegation went from 19-6 to 17-10.  I chose to count that as one new Dem seat, one new GOP seat, and three GOP-to-Dem changeovers.

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