Skip to main content

View Diary: Yup, Romney couldn't get out of mid-40s in battlegrounds (159 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Electoral College Benefit (13+ / 0-)

    One of the benefits of the Electoral College is making it possible to control the election in places where it possible to win. Obama had a solid lead in uncontested states, and was able to focus on those that were called "close". And yes, he did win big in those states.

    We would not be talking about what a major victory this was if we were using the popular vote. Sure, it was a solid win, but the narrative would be different.

    The National polls were skewed because Romney did SO much better in the "red" states. He was not able to translate his "popular" support into practical victories using the Electoral College.

    Sure, there is a lot of people calling for the elimination of the EC, including the author of this dairy AND the founder/owner of this blog. But the biggest reason we will continue to use the EC is because it is the system we already have in place. Changing it would be next to impossible, politically. So let's keep the focus on how to win using it. And any changes might have unintended consequences no one can predict.

    Imagine a close election, like we had in Florida 2000. Instead of one state (and only a few counties at that) doing a recount, it would be all 50 states doing a recount.

    The Democrats create jobs. The Republicans create recessions.

    by Tuba Les on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 02:01:46 AM PST

    •  the primary reason the EC will never change is (12+ / 0-)

      because it will only get worse for the GOP, not better. Even they can see that.

      So far Obama with his 4.5 million PV Lead over Romney (with more to come in the final tally) is about the best the GOP can expect to do nationally for the foreseeable future unless they completely revamp their party and its platform and brand image - something that doesn't seem likely anytime soon. Or at least until the teabagger base dies out or calms down a bit.

      So the Ec will not change. The GOP would be put out to pasture by it. And they know it.

      For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

      by mdmslle on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 02:59:48 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I've been predicting the demise of the GOP (8+ / 0-)

        for at least six years now and I haven't been right yet, but that's not going to stop me from doing it again.

        The path they're on right at the moment, I really don't think we're going to have to worry about GOP obstructionism ten years or so down the road.  Their coalition is simply too unstable to hold together if they don't have a viable path to power.  Add in their absolute impossibility to reach out to minority voters, given the very strong component of racism in the Republican base, and I don't see how the party can survive in the long term.

        The Federalists collapsed in the mid-1810s and the Whigs didn't emerge to take their place in the two-party system until the early 1830s.  We may be about to enter into a similar one-party era today.

        Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free
        ¡Boycott Arizona!

        by litho on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 03:47:49 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Nah, I don't think it'll go that far (5+ / 0-)

          I think, instead, we may be entering a situation similar to the post Civil War-era of 1865 to the early 1900s, when the GOP seemed to have a death grip on the WH (the Democrats only won twice with Grover Cleveland) and the Democrats were pretty much relegated to the former Confederacy and not much else in presidential elections. The current situation's paraellels with that time are pretty striking (the current GOP is strong in the Deep South and the Plains states, but little else) and, if anything, might be even worse then what the late 19th century Democratic party was facing (they at least could count on a totally solid South, while today's GOP has to deal with VA, NC and FL being swing states and the possible future loss of states like TX and GA due to demographic changes).

        •  GOP Coalition Fracture (5+ / 0-)
          Their coalition is simply too unstable to hold together if they don't have a viable path to power.
          I think the final trigger will be a few of the money men of the party, pissed off that their taxes are going up because the Talibornagains scared away too many voters, are going to demand that Changes Be Made. Then... pass the popcorn.

          On the Internet, nobody knows if you're a dog... but everybody knows if you're a jackass.

          by stevemb on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 08:46:34 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  If we elected the POTUS by popular vote... (11+ / 0-)

      ...the campaigning would've completely changed.  The battleground and terms of victory would've been completely different.  It'd be amusing to see candidates go to California for other than a money stop.  :)

    •  the national polls were off (12+ / 0-)

      Obviously. Obama's final popular vote victory is not going to be a slim margin, either.

      And, of course, if popular vote was determinative, the Obama campaign would have approached this election quite differently, and would have produced a different final tally.

    •  Although I agree with your main argument, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Cat Servant, Tuba Les

      I have to say I'm unpersuaded by your last statement.

      Personally, I think every ballot should be hand-counted, in order to confirm the results posted on election night.

      To put the torture behind us is, inevitably, to put it in front of us.

      by UntimelyRippd on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 05:40:50 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The Electoral College magnifies the result of (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Tuba Les

      the voting. If the EV were allocated proportionally within states, as is done in some now, the differences between the Electoral College vote and  the popular vote would be negligible.

      The spirit of liberty is the spirit which is not too sure that it is right. -- Judge Learned Hand, May 21, 1944

      by ybruti on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 06:18:23 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's not done (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SLKRR, Tuba Les, ybruti

        proportionally in any state. Maine and Nebraska allocate one EV per congressional district, which is obviously subject to the whims of gerrymandering.

        If all states allocated their EVs by congressional district, Romney would've won comfortably.

    •  4 million votes is not bad (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Tuba Les

      "Politics is like driving. To go backward put it in R. To go forward put it in D."
      Four More Years! How sweet it is!!!

      by TrueBlueMajority on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 07:56:20 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Actually (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SLKRR, Tuba Les

      we're halfway to getting it changed. We just need states representing 270 EVs, and we're at 130-ish.

      It looks like Arizona will be the first Republican-led state to jump aboard.

      And in any case, campaigns are designed around the rules of the game. If we had a national popular vote, then Obama would've run a different campaign.

      The national popular vote is irrelevant, so there was no reason for Democrats to maximize their base performance outside of the nine targeted states.

      •  Presidential Elections Would Have to be (0+ / 0-)

        Federalized. As of now, states have too many ways to modify the votes.

        Yes, campaigns would be different. Since the Democrats control the major population that is our advatage.

        The EC does a good job of dispatching splinter groups like Ross Perot.  I worry a popular vote system will not prrovide a definitive result with multiple .candidates.

        The Democrats create jobs. The Republicans create recessions.

        by Tuba Les on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 09:44:35 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site