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View Diary: Jump in Sea Level Slams U.S. East Coast (108 comments)

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  •  Plug it into Google. 32mm = 1.259 inches (8+ / 0-)

    That rise is from the peak last year to the peak this fall. Sea level rises every summer and begins to fall around this time of year, hitting a minimum in February or March in North Carolina. Look at the annual peaks. That's where the problem is. Hurricane season comes when sea level is at its peak. Average sea level doesn't mean crap for shoreline erosion on the east coast.

    And you don't seem to get that sea level rise is not a conspiracy.

    The AVISO figure for the north Atlantic in October before Sandy shows what the problem is very clearly. Sea level has risen disproportionately in the offshore area adjacent to Cape Hatteras and New Jersey. Moreover, that water had an exceptionally high heat content when Sandy moved over it.

    The combination of factors gave Sandy an enormous amount of energy, huge swells and record high tide levels at the Battery in New York, leading to devastating coastal damage.

    Please read my previous diaries on climate change and weather. I can't explain it all in one post.

    look for my eSci diary series Thursday evening.

    by FishOutofWater on Thu Nov 29, 2012 at 06:55:33 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  your facts are a bit off fish (0+ / 0-)

      1.  looking at an extreme low to an (admittedly) extreme high year on year and discounting previous highs shows a selection bias that is not indicative of the actual trend.

      2.  The fact that sea level is rising is not being questioned what constitutes a CT in my mind is the overdramatizing of the effect.  Sea level rise is a red herring in the climate change debate, as this years drought shows.

      3.  the eastern coast sea level rise is compounded by shorline sinking.  in the end, when storms have 13+ foot surges, a difference of 3-5 inches over the next 20 years doesn't mean a damn thing.

      4.  The surface temperatures were not extreme during sandy, they were well within normal historic parameters.  What made sandy extreme was the low pressure system and the blocking current over greenland that directed a compound extratropical storm to move due west.

      You have a lot of graphs and obviously made a lot of work into this.  I am a big fan, really, you need to recognize that if you continue to go down the path of sea level rise as a main argument for mitigation you will hopelessly fail because the AR5 revisions are going to show an arctic-driven tipping point and 4 degrees C rise by 2060.

      •  There's a paper you need to read & understand (0+ / 0-)

        I think you can find the complete paper on Google scholar. Also you need to read NOAA AOML's paper on the effects of ocean heat content on hurricane intensity.

        The northward expansion of the Atlantic warm pool has major consequences. The Gulf stream runs deep, carrying an enormous amount of heat. Big storms feed off that heat so SST is not the only issue. It's a matter of heat content. Either way you look at it however, this summer and early fall had record high water temperatures off the northeastern U.S.

        Reports by experts that you can freely find on the net (but I don't remember the links) have said that sea level has risen 1 ft at the Battery tide gauge over the past 100 years. Some of that is subsidence related to bowing tied to post glacial rebound. Most of that is caused by the thermal expansion of water in response to ocean warming.

        WRT to sea level rise, the long-term line is there for everyone to see on the graph. I'm not denying it or hiding it so please don't say I'm cherry picking. Sea level was at or near record high levels when Sandy passed over so the sea level peak is directly relevant to the damage to shorelines.

        look for my eSci diary series Thursday evening.

        by FishOutofWater on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 12:09:39 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  In the AMS (0+ / 0-)

          The hurricane heat potential (HHP) is called, "Upper-Ocean Heat Content"


          I, personally, am more concerned about what happens when the AMOC begins to slow down.  

        •  the rate of increase is increasing (0+ / 0-)

          at an increasing rate. Its what scientists refer to as "surprising acceleration" in their observed rates of change.

          1990-1995 - 1mm year; total 5 mm rise
          1995-2000 - 1 mm year; total 10 mm rise
          2000-2005 - 2 mm year; total 20 mm rise
          2005-2010 - 3 mm year; total 35 mm rise
          2010-2015 - 5 mm year; total 60 mm rise

          2015-2020 - 8 mm year projected; total 100 mm rise
          moving shoreline inland 100 feet so that seawalls
          levees and replenishment fail, barrier islands are breached, storm surges begin to break on the mainland, shore road infrastructure to include roads, railroads, bridges, airport runways, marinas, water treatment , sewer treatment, power plants, LPGN and fuel oil storage are destroyed sources of pollution. In Florida south beach restaurants no longer need to buy seafood it lives on the reef they have been transformed into.

          If you extend the observations forward a little what began with the oceans coefficient of expansion due to temperature rise begins to be augmented by melting polar ice.

          2020-2025-13 mm year projected; total 165 mm rise
          2025 -2030-21 mm year projected; total 270 mm rise
          at 300 mm or about 1 foot of rise the shoreline has moved inland 300 feet in flat areas and places like Brownsville Texas are now part of the ocean. The hope of holding temperature rise to 1 degree, mediating climate change by reducing atmospheric carbon is dashed when the release of methane hydrates from siberian lakes and every shoreline around the world causes a "surprising acceleration" in the rate at which atmospheric and ocean temperatures rise.

          2030-2035 -34 mm year projected; total 440 mm rise
          In 2037 the shoreline has moved inland about a furlong
          and most harbors on the east coast are now part of Atlantis
          2035-2040 -55 mm year projected; total 715 mm rise
          by 2033 with a meter rise most east coast nuke plants are becoming very hard to service.

          Even as rising population makes more people dependent on the oceans for food, the increased temperature acidification and salinity of the oceans and atmosphere cause oxygen producing bacteria in the north Atlantic to die off resulting in dwindling fish stocks and serious problems for oxygen breathers generally.

          Fortunately the most likely result is that the cause of the problem will be removed  without us around to cause problems and in a few millenia things will get back to normal

          Live Free or Die --- Investigate, Incarcerate

          by rktect on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 11:11:00 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

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