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  •  Politics Does not work that way (1+ / 0-)
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    Larsstephens
    If the Republican elite is serious about the party becoming based in reality rather than ignoring it, becoming more moderate, and reaching out to others, that is going to put the intensely ethnocentric, don't-confuse-me-with-facts-my-mind's-made-up "Republitarians" between a rock and a hard place.
    Political parties are not the private preserve of a few folks behind the beltway.  They belong to the people, the voters.  As the folks that you do not like have shown recently, repeatedly, they can win party primaries.  Simple math shows this is totally not surprising.  The authoritarians are a tad over a quarter of the population (> 25%).  The Republicans are a minority of the population (< 50%).  Regional differences, weak or outstanding candidates, etc. can make a difference, but in general the above numbers mean that the authoritarians are a majority in the Republican Party.  If push comes to shove, the authoritarians will gleefully purge the RINOS out of the party and become the overwhelming majority in a rather smaller Republican Party.

    In addition, Romney's belief that he was winning led to large numbers of fleeced giant donors who gave and gave because they believed Romney.  Those people are not going to invest in another Republican, not a  lot.  But they will look carefully at Americans Elect.  Mayor Bloomberg proved that you can put a new party on the ballot in all 50 states and DC, the American way! Bomb the problem with money!

    No, if you want a second party of sane people -- except in the south, where these people will be a majority -- you want to reform ballot access laws so that a second party shows up from someplace, say the Main Street Trolley Party.

    By the way, this was a superb article.

    We can have change for the better.

    by phillies on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 01:16:14 PM PST

    •  Re: Politics doesn't work that way (1+ / 0-)
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      phillies

      Hola phillies - I agree with your numbers . . . and the implication. That was what I was thinking about when brought up the "bad omens." This has gnawed at me for a long time. I've come up with several scenarios of what the post-food-fight political environment might look like. Here's what I ended up with:

      1. The Republitarians figure out that if they boot the RINOs out completely, they'll end on the short side of a 3:1 split, so they decide to dial things down enough that they manage to keep the reality-based Republicans from jumping ship. Very low probability of that happening.

      2. The Republitarians purge the ranks and the RINOs try to form a center-right party. Probability of that happening - less than 10^-999.

      3. The Republitarians purge the ranks and the Democratic party moves toward the center so as to engage the reality-based Republicans. I like this option but if it happens, it will evolve slowly.

      4. The Republitarians purge the ranks and take the party further to the right, Newton's Third Law kicks in and the Democrats drift further leftward. Given Hetherington and Weiler, this could happen . . .

      5. The Republicans won't have a big food fight, the Republitarians won't dial themselves down, and, over time, the reality-based Republicans will reregister as Independents and deal. I suspect that if that happens, the Democratic party would eventually figure out that if they can do things that would appeal to the independents they would be able to squeeze the Republitarians. This could happen.

      6. The Republitarians  purge the party, dial up the rhetoric and then attempt a putsch ushering in the Age of Amerika. God forbid.

      The only thing I can say about the future with any confidence is that it's going to get worse before it gets better . . .

      But I do think you're on to something with the Main Street Trolley Party. That just might have some legs . . .

      Thanks for the compliment. Glad you liked it.

      "The water won't clear up 'til we get the hogs out of the creek." -- Jim Hightower

      by lartwielder on Sun Dec 02, 2012 at 04:29:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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